My computer is projecting ~150 prospects to graduate this year.

In 2022 there were actually about ~170 prospects that graduated. Which is a lot more than I expected before I looked it up.

So, maybe this projection model isn’t too crazy after all.

Probably not.

ANYWAYS. Just a look at the projected top ROY candidates in each League.

I’m going to start by listing off rookies that my computer projects to do well this year independent of their real life context, and then narrow it down from there by eliminating prospects that may not have ideal opportunities on their MLB squads or are impacted currently by injuries, then narrow it down even further by eliminating prospects that do not have ideal opportunities on their CPL teams. Hopefully it leaves a decent picture of the 3-6 best options for ROY for both leagues.

First AL, then NL (CPL versions that is). First hitters, then pitchers.

Any questions, leave them at the bottom. Until then, let’s dig in.

CPL AL Hitters Candidates

Corbin Carrol is an obvious stand out. Whether he starts every day in the CPL is ultimately up to the manager, but by my estimation he is at least the third best OF on the squad. Checks every box. Probably the overall front runner for AL ROY.

Garrett Mitchell is probably the 2nd best option with a lower floor. His outcomes are directly tied to his bat. If he hits, he’ll likely stick with the Brewers and make a case for ROY. If he struggles, he may be sent down and toil in AAA.

Sal Frelick, Curtis Mead, Brett Baty and Josh Jung are essentially in the same situation. While all are talented, none are likely to make a strong case for 2023 AL ROY due to their circumstances in the MLB, CPL or both.

Royce Lewis is a good example of how the current projection system struggles to account for injuries. Currently, Lewis is projected to return to field action in a couple weeks, but we’re talking probably another 2-6 weeks of ramp up time depending on how he progresses. If he comes back, it’s hard to predict how the Twins will balance his injury plagued ways with that of Buxton, Correa and the rest of the team. I would guess he would have to play at a healthy level for a month or so, and if called up, plays only 3-5 times a week, potentially rotating around the diamond. In any case, I’m not sure if BROB would start Royce every day, or even call him up to his pro squad. In the end, too many things going against him, all likely pointing to a poor chance at ’23 AL ROY.

David Hensley has benefited greatly from a last moment injury to Jose Altuve. I’ve listed his MLB Competition as “Average” to attempt to communicate that he has relatively little competition until Altuve comes back from injury, and once he does, he will obviously have very significant competition. For now though, he’s got the MLB opportunity, but not the CPL opportunity unfortunately.

Otto Lopez’s best case scenario (fills in for an injury, hits enough to stick in Toronto, Tom Cat’s makes room and calls him up, shares time with other similarly flawed bats) doesn’t even sound that great. With that being said, we’re best just leaving him off the list entirely.

Even if Will Brennan comes into full time at bats in Cleveland, Your Mom will have to make some sacrifices to benefit from Brennan’s opportunities. And all that to make available a bat that would probably be his 6th OFer. An interesting profile, but not one that figures to contribute greatly to the 2023 AL ROY race.

CPL AL Pitchers

Accidentally omitted – RP Drey Jameson Ari – BROB’s Barnacles. Currently rostered on the MLB and CPL pro rosters, but as a Long Reliever for Arizona. Would have been between Taj and Bradley by xTWAR, but due to MLB Role, probably not considered a strong candidate.

Pitchers are hard. I baked in the propensity for SP to get injured, which is why so many of the pitchers have “Limited” competition. You only need 1 of the 5 or 6 SP on an MLB squad to get injured to have a chance. Things are a little more competitive in the CPL, so, that’s why you see more “Average” than “Limited”. This helps to raise the floor of a lot of these prospects, but also lower their ceiling. If you have a decent chance to get some playing time, you may struggle to find significant playing time. Or something like that.

Hunter Brown and Ryne Nelson are clear exceptions. They’re both starting at the moment and neither have a ton of competition that they should be afraid of. The Astros have more competition than the Diamondbacks, but not so much that I think it will limit Brown’s opportunities this season. Hunter Brown is the only one debuting in the CPL, but Ryne will probably get his chance sooner rather than later.

Cody Morris is the pitching version of Royce Lewis in this analysis.

All the rest of the pitchers are current MLB and CPL depth, and the first one to get an opportunity will likely separate himself from the pack. Bachman and Whitley playing on a team vying for a better draft pick probably decreases their odds. Brandon Walter being stuck on Your Mom’s Littles and not having a clear path to breaking the 30 man probably takes him out of the running entirely.

The rest are all a roll of a dice.

CPL NL Hitter Candidates

Gunnar Henderson and Esteury Ruiz seem to have the best chance at running away with ROY in 2023.

Behind them, but not too far, Volpe, Bae and Casas may struggle to find playing time in the CPL, but will likely have respectable rookie seasons of their own. Bae has an added advantage of playing in a low stress environment, so even if he struggles, he may get the time to play through it. Volpe and Casas aren’t so lucky, but if they keep hitting, they’ll be little reason to punish them and they’ll be in the running for ROY.

Rocchio may get called up at some point this season, and is currently on a CPL pro team, but it’s hard to say how much playing time he will get in the CPL if he is allotted the opportunity as he is playing on a team seeking more of a high draft pick and less of a high record.

Turang, Alvarez and Burleson may all get significant playing time this year in both the CPL and MLB but will need some advantage to break their way. Either an MLB team giving them the chance they deserve, or an injury clearing the path.

Xavier Edwards may be in the toughest boat. He has a reasonable chance to be called up, but not really a whole lot of opportunity on their respective CPL squad.

CPL NL Pitcher Candidates

Oof, lots of pain and injury here. Four of the top five are either recently injured, or still recovering from recent significant injury. As a result, none of them are likely to make good on their projections.

Of the remaining 6, only 1 is starting, rostered on a pro roster, and unlikely to get replaced any time soon. You guessed it, Ken Waldichuk is your leading candidate for NL ROY amongst the pitcher crop. This sentence started off as a joke, but I’m struggling with a punchline, because he honestly doesn’t have much in the way of competition.

Kyle Muller might be a better pitcher, but may struggle to get playing time on Pro Bowlers.

Bryan Mata, Grayson Rodriguez and Cole Henry are all probably better talents than either Waldi or Muller, but are going to need some luck to fall their way to find an MLB opportunity sooner rather than later.

The fact that Eury Perez even made this list is truly a reflection of his impressive talent. Maybe he gets promoted unexpectedly in May and tears it up. But, I probably wouldn’t put too much money on that scenario.

AL Summary

Of the hitter group Corbin Carrol and Garrett Mitchell both seemed like the best options, with Josh Jung as a dark horse if Banocolates calls him up and makes him his primary 3B for the majority of the season.

Sal Frelick, Curtis Mead and Bret Baty are all reasonable sleeper candidates, but are starting the season at disadvantages.

Of the pitchers Hunter Brown seemed the only candidate with a shot as of Opening Day with Ryne Nelson as a dark horse.

Taj Bradley and Sam Bachman could all make a run for it to if they get a shot sooner rather than later.

Out of Corbin Carrol, Garrett Mitchell and Hunter Brown, I would project my end of season ballot to read:

The difference between Hunter Brown and Garrett Mitchell might just come down to which of Baby Seals and The Big Units makes the playoffs, or gets closest if they both fall shy.

NL Summary

Of the hitters Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Volpe and Esteury Ruiz all are in excellent positions to make a run for ROY and are the top 3 prospects by xTWAR. Very convenient. Dark horse candidate is Triston Casas.

I’ll drop Bryan Rocchio as a sleeper candidate for the fun of it.

For the pitchers, Ken Waldichuk is leading the charge, but reasonably speaking Kyle Muller is just as good of a candidate if he is brought up soon.

No dark horses really, but Grayson Rodriguez, Bryan Maya and Cole Henry all have the same level of sleeper appeal.

Out of Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Volpe, Esteury Ruiz, Ken Waldichuk and Kyle Muller I would project my end of season ballot to read:

I just have no love for the pitchers I guess.

Anyways, that’s my take on the Rookie of the Year races.

Any omissions, errors, over-valuations or differing opinions, feel free to spew them onto the internet and see how many people you can get to agree with you.

That’s all for now!