2024 NL ROY Projections

The original post was starting to get too long, so I’ve broken the content into two posts instead.

Let’s take a look at the NL options.

Candidates – NL Hitters

Evan Carter looks like the clear stand out. The only mark against him is that the Pro Bowlers outfield is absolutely terrifying, and he legitimately may be a 4th OFer the whole season. Regardless of the CPL stats he puts up though, if he follows through on his promise, I feel he’s the front runner for NL ROY.

I’m going to jump all the way to the bottom of the list and highlight Ceddanne Rafaela and Parker Meadows next. Despite being listed as numbers 9 and 10, neither are batting at the bottom of their respective lineups, and both have interesting supporting bats which might afford them additional counting stats, making them solid second tier options for NL ROY. Bonus points for chilling on the CPL Pro roster right now, even if Parker has to compete with the more impressive Evan Carter for 4th OF opportunities.

Michael Busch probably belongs with Rafaela and Meadows, but has a slight disadvantage due to his current platoon status. Similar to Schanuel in the AL series, Busch’s platoon partner is the relatively unimpressive Garrett Cooper. If Busch starts hitting, the platoon may evaporate, and he’ll be in contention. If he does not though, he won’t. Still a brilliant analysis. Rafaela and Meadows get the bump because I believe they will have the longer leash to struggle before a change occurs. Additionally, Busch is living in the CPL minors right now, further dimming his outlook.

Brayan Rocchio and Joey Ortiz fall neatly into this next tier as both are batting at the bottom of their respective MLB lineups (literally 9th), are seen more as defensive contributors than offensive contributors at the moment, and in Ortiz’s case has significant competition for MLB playing time. Despite both being on the CPL Pro roster and having current MLB opportunity, neither feel like strong ROY candidates.

Connor Norby has an immense amount of competition in the Pro and CPL atmospheres, so he doesn’t seem a likely candidate to generate the volume needed to truly compete for ROY status.

Brooks Lee and Dustin Harris, while in better situations than Norby, are stashed on their respective CPL Little Leagues, leaving them at a disadvantage compared to everyone else.

Finally we get to Noelvi Marte. He will have 80 games to put up numbers and overcome his recent PR blemishes. Those 80 games will have competition with talented Reds infielders in the MLB and Rafael Devers in the CPL, leaving him with many hurdles to overcome to make a run for ROY. Maybe he deserves to be discussed with the likes of Norby, but I felt his odd circumstances deserved a separate and distinct call out.

Candidates – NL Pitchers

Starting at the top we have Max Meyer and Kyle Harrison as strong options for NL ROY. Harrison maybe more so as he is cruising at the pro level for the Nellemaniacs. Harrison also has a bit of an odd situation as part of the Giants’ 6 man rotation. Hard to say how long that will hold up and what dominoes will fall if they shrink back to a 5 man rotation. Still, they seem like the best bet amongst the arms to make a run for it.

Nick Nastrini and Mike Vasil belong in the next tier from my perspective. Both are at AAA, but if Nastrini gets the chance, and the White Sox seem likely to need his help this season, Cale will probably benefit from his presence immediately. Meanwhile Vasil, who has competition in the Mets rotation, is likely to get a shot this year and is already waiting in the wings on JK’s pro team. As soon as he starts accruing MLB stats, the Kelly’s Heroes will also likely benefit. Well, depending on your perspective.

Connor Phillips and Rickey Tiedemann are the next ones up, both in AAA and the CPL minors. Tiedemann probably gets the bump as there appears to be plenty of room for him on Dan’s current rotation, but otherwise these two have similar MLB and CPL opportunities.

Will Warren, Carson Whisenhunt and Rhett Lowder bring up the rear in that order. At least Warren is in AAA, so he should conceivably get some time with the Yankees this season, but for all of these, no matter the MLB opportunities provided, they will all likely be stuck in the CPL little leagues, greatly reducing their opportunity to vie for the ROY honors.

Lastly, Kyle Hurt does not garner any legitimate considerations. Currently a middle reliever, and unlikely to make a significant impact this season in the CPL or the MLB, he is simply a foot note at this time.

Candidates – NL Non-Prospects

The Asian/Cuban professionals.

Shota will likely pitch for a middle of the pack team all season long and may have moments of being very good. He is currently in the Danimal’s minor league team, but may force himself into consideration for a promotion depending on how his April goes.

Yariel is currently at AAA. Apparently he had a late start to Spring Training, and is expected to be fully stretched out and take a stab at a rotation slot by the of April. His biggest competition right now is Bowden Francis who is making for a nice Cinderella story after a decent Spring, but all-in-all, isn’t someone that should hold Yariel back. Similar to Shota, depending on how Yariel’s April goes, he may force himself into a The Big Hurts rotation that could use an additional arm.

Candidates – NL Super Prospects

Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford are the obvious standouts. There isn’t much to get in either of their ways if they continue to hit, but each has their own potential obstacle. The Brewers have a crap ton of outfielders and have been getting creative in an effort to fit them all into their lineups. At the moment a Garrett Mitchell injury has made room, but Wiemer is still floating in AAA, and may push for playing time. It’s not that I expect Wiemer to supplant Chourio, but if Chourio struggles, he may not get the leash he deserves. Langford is in a similar enough situation as the DH while Nate Lowe is on the IL and Foscue is waiting in AAA. Again, neither of these players should push Langford for time, but they may mean his leash isn’t as long as it should be.

Victor Scott II is in the next tier of options, with the significant red flag of being in the littles.

Junior Caminero and Marco Luciano are in the next level. Luciano is already at the CPL pro level, so once promoted will start accruing CPL stats. Junior has more competition, but for his talent level he’ll probably push himself into the starting role at the MLB and CPL level before too long.

Coby Mayo is the next tier, as the biggest obstacle to his candidacy is the brutal level of competition with the Orioles. If he can somehow squeeze his way into that lineup, he’ll probably get a chance with the Pro Bowlers, and will have a solid chance at a run.

Owen Caissie, Luisangel Acuna, Andy Pages and Mick Abel bring in the next group. Pages may have more opportunity at the MLB level and Abel and Acuna at the CPL level, but all are trapped in the littles impacting their likelihood of garnering votes to the same degree.

Tekoah Roby would need to make a decent leap over many many other pitching prospects in the StL organization and be promoted to the 40 man to have a shot at pitching in the MLB at all this season. As a result, I don’t see Roby making a push for ROY.

Samuel Basallo and Roman Anthony bring up the bottom tier as both are in AA and stuck in their littles. Anthony has some chance this year of making a splash in Boston, but even if he does I don’t see JK making a littles trade to get him liberated from his shackles.

NL Summary

Hitters – Evan Carter, Ceddanne Rafaela, Parker Meadows and Michael Busch.

Pitchers – Max Meyer and Kyle Harrison

Non-Prospects – Shota Imanaga and Yariel Rodriguez

Super Prospects – Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford

Resulting in a ranking of:

Rafaela, Meadows, Busch and Rodriguez will have chances to make a run for it, I just don’t think they are at the same level as the 5 names listed above. Brayan Rocchio, Joey Ortiz, Junior Caminero, Brooks Lee, Noelvi Marte, Will Warren, Nick Nastrini, Mick Abel, Coby Mayo and Marco Luciano are the NL honorable mentions for ROY.

And this concludes the ROY series. Hope you enjoyed.