2024 AL ROY Projections

Taking the learning’s from the earlier retrospection, let’s see how the ROY opportunities shake out in 2024.

Candidates – AL Hitters

Let’s start with the most confusing situation. Tyler Black, Colt Keith and Curtis Mead are all vying for the long term solution as the Tom Cat’s starting 2B. Of the three, the one who pulls ahead will be given the reigns, but if multiple “pop”, that could infringe upon all of their potentials as AL ROY as a CPL time share will likely result. Of the three, Keith currently represents the best option at the MLB level and has therefore been given the first bite. But Mead is a tweaked hammy away from getting his own shot and Black may run and hit his way into a Brewers lineup that is fairly lacking at infield bats, so really any of the three have a fair shot. For now though, we might as well settle on Keith as the best option and move on.

Masyn Winn is the only other candidate that is being given an unrestricted chance in the MLB and the pro roster of the CPL and represents the next best option to accrue enough volume to stake his claim to the ROY race.

Nolan Schanuel might get the same opportunity eventually. At the moment he’s a “platoon” bat with…Luis Rengifo…..? If Rengifo is enough of an offensive force to keep Schanuel in a platoon situation, then Schanuel probably wasn’t going to make a run at ROY anyways. So, in short, if Schanuel hits, he’ll probably get more opportunity, and therefore more volume and a greater chance at ROY. If he does not hit, he won’t. Brilliant analysis.

The other Banocolate looking to prove himself is Colton Cowser, but he is in a terrible situation no matter how you look at it. As a member of the Orioles, he will struggle to get ABs. Stuck on the Lil Fruits, he will struggle to get any CPL stats. And even if liberated from the littles, he will struggle to get ABs with the staunch competition in the Banocolates outfield. But, Coswer will merely need to get an opportunity in Baltimore AND an opportunity on the Banocolates to generate some competition.

Pete Crow Armstrong and Wade Meckler both fall into the same general category as outfielders pushing to join their respective organizations professional outfield groups and sitting in their respective CPL minor leagues. PCA has significantly more pedigree, so should be given the edge, but I’m not sure how the Cubs are going to handle him considering how much money they have in their outfield right now. Same goes to Meckler too, so both may just languish in the minors until an injury presents itself.

Max Muncy and Everson Pereira are both trapped on their respective organizations little league rosters. Pereira may get a shot in the Bronx this season, but I don’t see the Athletics having much incentive to rush Muncy. Neither appear to be strong ROY candidates at this time.

Candidates – AL Pitchers

We appear to only have one strong pitching candidate in Jared Jones as all other pitchers are currently in the MLB minors or injured. If Fred can find a place for Jones on his already decimated pitching staff (3 injuries as of opening day), and if Jones can be effective enough that the Pirates don’t demote him, then I believe we’re looking at a strong candidate for ROY.

AJ Smith-Shawver and David Festa are currently serving as org depth in the MLB and the CPL, but if they can get a chance with their respective organizations (which being pitchers, they likely will get that chance assuming health), they can join Jones as ROY candidates.

Alek Jacob is not likely to garner any votes. My computer assumes all pitching prospects are starters. There are several reasons for this that I won’t get in to, but the result is the occasional reliever with good “stuff” gets escalated as a break out candidate until further investigation reveals a limited ceiling. Which is exactly what we’re seeing with Jacob. Maybe he helps out the Padres and Ben during the regular season, but barring a truly remarkable breakout, there is probably not any awards in his future.

Matt Canterino and Drew Thorpe are both in the MLB minors and trapped in the CPL littles. If enough dominoes fall they could reasonably be ROY candidates, but there are a lot of hurdles they’d have to jump and I’m probably going to leave them off the final projections as a result.

I’ve saved Painter, Frasso, Burke and Gipson-Long for last. While not all are guaranteed out for the season, starting the year off with an injury is not a good start. I will simply drop these names by default as a result.

Candidates – AL Non-Prospects

Lesson learned #1, them Asian professionals.

I don’t have any fancy computer numbers to tell me how good these players may or may be, so we’ll go with the obvious.

Yamamoto will very likely (barring health) pitch for a very good team all season long. On top of that, chances are very high that he will pitch very effectively.

Jung Hoo Lee will likewise receive a large amount of playing time, and probably be pretty good.

Yuki may play a pivotal role for the Padres, but at the end of the day he’s a reliever. An RP for ROY? Gross.

Candidates – AL Super Prospects

Lesson learned #2, them very very good prospects break my computer.

I’m not going to pretend that I have a starting point for which prospects are most likely to make super leaps through the minors, so let’s all acknowledge that what I’m about to do is almost pure guess.

For the top 25 prospects, I’ll narrow them down to the prospects who are projected to graduate next year or the year after, and for the back 75 prospects I’ll narrow those down to prospects projected to graduate next year. I’m limiting myself to the MLB Pipeline top 100 just to keep things somewhat simple at the moment.

Jackson Merrill is the obvious stand out from this list having already made it to the pros for opening day this season. He’s included for consideration as a result.

James Wood, Paul Skenes and Jackson Holliday are the next most deserving (in that order) due to being at AAA and ordered by most likely to help out their respective CPL squads.

Dylan Crews, Colson Montgomery and Jeferson Quero are the next tier. Crews and Montgomery are potential call ups straight from AA if their respective MLB franchises deem them deserving. Quero is in AAA, but behind a tough roadblock in William Contreras, so unlikely to see significant playing time this year unless there is a big injury.

I’ll squeeze Jordan Lawlar in here as he may miss the next two months, but once back, depending on how things have shaken out, he may fall straight into the Diamondbacks’ starting 9.

Marcelo Mayer, Jackson Jobe, Tink Hence and Anthony Solometo are all unlikely to see substantial MLB time this season, but are worth mentioning.

Dylan Lesko, Brock Porter and Chase Dollander are all very unlikely to see professional time this year, and if they do, unlikely to see enough to compete for ROY.

Jasson Dominguez will probably be a strong push for ROY next season. Not positive on his TJ recovery timeline, but even with the accelerated hitters timeline, I feel like he’s probably going to be eased back in this season.

AL Summary

From the hitters Masyn Winn, Colt Keith and Nolan Schanuel are probably the best bets for ROY.

From the pitchers, Jared Jones seems to be the only strong candidate.

Of the Asian imports, Yamamoto and Jung are strong candidates for consideration of ROY.

Of the high ranking prospects not projected to graduate fully in 2024, Jackson Merrill is the stand out that deserves consideration.

All of this results in the ranking below:

Masyn Winn and Nolan Schanuel may play the whole season, but I’m not convinced they’ll have particularly strong offensive seasons. I’ll also highlight Pete Crow Armstrong, Curtis Mead, AJ Smith-Shawver, David Festa, Yuki Matsui, James Wood, Paul Skenes and Jackson Holliday as honorable mentions for 2024 AL ROY.

If I list enough names, I’m bound to get some right, right?

That’s all for the AL! Any questions or call outs, leave em below in the comments.

**Austin Wells is deserving of an honorable mention in a similar vein as Nolan Schanuel.