2025 Season Projections – only a touch late

Same methodology as seasons past.

ESPN projections and opening day rosters fueling the entirety of the outputs generated by each team, with each teams depth chart on their pro roster only filling in for off days of each teams primary starters.

A normalized distribution curve was created for each teams output at each of the 16 head to head categories, and this curve was compared to the season schedule for each team.

For each matchup, each teams curves were overlapped, and the Win/Loss/Tie probabilities were calculated from this.

For each category, for each matchup, the Win/Tie totals for each team were tabulated and summed up for the whole season (the losses were assumed to be the remainder).

Any questions, as always, let me know.

Here are the results:

Roto Projections

Hitters Stats Totals

Hitter Roto Rankings

Pitcher Stat Totals

Pitcher Roto Rankings

Total Roto Rankings

Season Record Projections

xTWin% is short for “Expected Total Win%”. This represents how many wins the roto line that each team generates should get on average against a neutral opponent. Having a projected record above this mark suggests that the teams record is less challenging then average. A projected record below this mark suggests the opposite.

AL East

AL West

NL East

NL West

CPL Rankings