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Farm System Breakdown – #14: Nellamaniacs

April 29, 2021
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For an explanation on the distinction between the “Exponential” and “Linear” rankings given below, please refer to my earlier post “Farm System Primer”. I know it’s tedious, but I had just enough details that I felt needed to review, that I didn’t want to start off each Farm System Breakdown post with 4 paragraphs of jargon. And of course, any questions, feel free to inquire within.

Top 30 Rank (Exponential/Linear): 14/15
Total Rank (Exp/Lin): 14/15
Average of Total Rank (Exp/Lin): 14/15
Average Prospect Grade/Risk (Exp/Lin): 46.1/High / 38.3/High
Total Prospects: 40

Groups of 15 Rankings

Exponential RankingsGroupingLinear Rankings
171-1517
3816-3038
5231-4551

Organization Prospect Rankings

MPTK = “More Players to Know” section of Handbook, DC = Depth Chart of Handbook, 21IFA = IFA signed and drafted in 2021, NL = Not listed in handbook under any sections

Prosp RankPosNameTmGradeRiskLin ValueExp Value
1CFrancisco AlvarezNyM60Very High67.545.3
2CShea LangoliersAtl55High65.032.0
3CMiguel AmayaChC55High65.032.0
4SSBrice TurangMil55High65.032.0
5SSGunnar HendersonBal55Extreme60.016.0
6SSCarson TuckerCle50High60.016.0
7OFMisael UrbinaMin55Extreme60.016.0
8SPYoendrys GomezNyY50High60.016.0
9SPCody BoltonPit50High60.016.0
10SPKyle HarrisonSF55Extreme60.016.0
11SPJoe RyanTB50High60.016.0
12CAlex JacksonAtl40Medium55.08.0
13SSBrainer BonaciBos50Extreme55.08.0
14OFEdward OlivaresKC40Medium55.08.0
15SPCarlos HernandezKC45High55.08.0
16SSJeremiah JacksonLaA50Extreme55.08.0
173BShervyen NewtonNyM45High55.08.0
18SPMatt SauerNyY50Extreme55.08.0
19OFIsmael MenaSD50Extreme55.08.0
20OFJake FraleySea40Medium55.08.0
21SSEdmundo SosaStL40Medium55.08.0
222BSantiago EspinalTor40Medium55.08.0
23CWill BanfieldMia45Very High52.55.7
24SSChristopher SeiseTex45Very High52.55.7
25OFAlexander RamirezLaA45Extreme50.04.0
263BAlexander MojicaPit45Extreme50.04.0
27SSCameron CannonBosMPTKMPTK45.02.0
28RPAndre ScrubbHouMPTKMPTK45.02.0
29OFEquardi FernandezMilMPTKMPTK45.02.0
30CYermin MercedesChWDCDC40.01.0
31OFJulio Pablo MartinezTexDCDC40.01.0
32OFMiguel BleisBos21IFA21IFA37.50.7
33SSHans MonteroNyY21IFA21IFA37.50.7
34OFSamuel ZavalaSD21IFA21IFA37.50.7
35SSStarlin AguilarSea21IFA21IFA37.50.7
36SSCarlos ColmenarezTB21IFA21IFA37.50.7
37SSDanyer CuevaTex21IFA21IFA37.50.7
38SSBrady McConnellKCNLNL0.00.0
39OFJoe GrayMilNLNL0.00.0
40SSMiguel Tejada JrPhiNLNL0.00.0

Summary

Well, hard to be too judgemental with this one. Nelly walked on to a team fighting to compete, and inherited a team with limited farm to work with.

Although the order of prospects with equivalent values is effectively random, I still find it amusing that the top 3 prospects of the “Formerly Known as Mauling Tigers” franchise are catchers. Because of course they would be. They’re decent enough too, but I personally shudder at the thought of investing that much of my prospect capital in the catcher position.

Beyond that you have a trio of interesting shortstops and a slew of “guys”. What may be the biggest “miss” of the BA handbook is reflected in Yermin Mercedes being a mere Depth Chart listed prospect. Whether his current performance is real or not, that seems to be a fairly clear slight at this point. Perhaps an updated grade/risk combo would prop the entire farm system up a peg or two. At the end of the farm you have the 2nd most 2021 IFA’s (6), that could all provide extra boost to his valuation next season when/if they receive proper BA Handbook grades.

There are enough lottery ticket question marks to see a mid-tier farm forming from this group, but you have to wonder how aggressive Nelly will be when it comes to competing. If he opts to trade away any and all talent that develops under his watch, we should continue to expect to see the Nellamaniacs in the bottom quarter of farms. If he’s willing to coast on his solid competitive squad, maybe a top 10 farm system develops in 2-3 years.

Welcome back to the CPL, Nelly.

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Comments 1

  1. YM
    Your Mom
    these are absolutely tremendous and so fun to read. thanks tom!

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