For an explanation on the distinction between the “Exponential” and “Linear” rankings given below, please refer to my earlier post “Farm System Primer”. I know it’s tedious, but I had just enough details that I felt needed to review, that I didn’t want to start off each Farm System Breakdown post with 4 paragraphs of jargon. And of course, any questions, feel free to inquire within.
Top 30 Rank (Exponential/Linear): 14/15
Total Rank (Exp/Lin): 14/15
Average of Total Rank (Exp/Lin): 14/15
Average Prospect Grade/Risk (Exp/Lin): 46.1/High / 38.3/High
Total Prospects: 40
Groups of 15 Rankings
| Exponential Rankings | Grouping | Linear Rankings |
| 17 | 1-15 | 17 |
| 38 | 16-30 | 38 |
| 52 | 31-45 | 51 |
Organization Prospect Rankings
MPTK = “More Players to Know” section of Handbook, DC = Depth Chart of Handbook, 21IFA = IFA signed and drafted in 2021, NL = Not listed in handbook under any sections
| Prosp Rank | Pos | Name | Tm | Grade | Risk | Lin Value | Exp Value |
| 1 | C | Francisco Alvarez | NyM | 60 | Very High | 67.5 | 45.3 |
| 2 | C | Shea Langoliers | Atl | 55 | High | 65.0 | 32.0 |
| 3 | C | Miguel Amaya | ChC | 55 | High | 65.0 | 32.0 |
| 4 | SS | Brice Turang | Mil | 55 | High | 65.0 | 32.0 |
| 5 | SS | Gunnar Henderson | Bal | 55 | Extreme | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 6 | SS | Carson Tucker | Cle | 50 | High | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 7 | OF | Misael Urbina | Min | 55 | Extreme | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 8 | SP | Yoendrys Gomez | NyY | 50 | High | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 9 | SP | Cody Bolton | Pit | 50 | High | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 10 | SP | Kyle Harrison | SF | 55 | Extreme | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 11 | SP | Joe Ryan | TB | 50 | High | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 12 | C | Alex Jackson | Atl | 40 | Medium | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 13 | SS | Brainer Bonaci | Bos | 50 | Extreme | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 14 | OF | Edward Olivares | KC | 40 | Medium | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 15 | SP | Carlos Hernandez | KC | 45 | High | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 16 | SS | Jeremiah Jackson | LaA | 50 | Extreme | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 17 | 3B | Shervyen Newton | NyM | 45 | High | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 18 | SP | Matt Sauer | NyY | 50 | Extreme | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 19 | OF | Ismael Mena | SD | 50 | Extreme | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 20 | OF | Jake Fraley | Sea | 40 | Medium | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 21 | SS | Edmundo Sosa | StL | 40 | Medium | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 22 | 2B | Santiago Espinal | Tor | 40 | Medium | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 23 | C | Will Banfield | Mia | 45 | Very High | 52.5 | 5.7 |
| 24 | SS | Christopher Seise | Tex | 45 | Very High | 52.5 | 5.7 |
| 25 | OF | Alexander Ramirez | LaA | 45 | Extreme | 50.0 | 4.0 |
| 26 | 3B | Alexander Mojica | Pit | 45 | Extreme | 50.0 | 4.0 |
| 27 | SS | Cameron Cannon | Bos | MPTK | MPTK | 45.0 | 2.0 |
| 28 | RP | Andre Scrubb | Hou | MPTK | MPTK | 45.0 | 2.0 |
| 29 | OF | Equardi Fernandez | Mil | MPTK | MPTK | 45.0 | 2.0 |
| 30 | C | Yermin Mercedes | ChW | DC | DC | 40.0 | 1.0 |
| 31 | OF | Julio Pablo Martinez | Tex | DC | DC | 40.0 | 1.0 |
| 32 | OF | Miguel Bleis | Bos | 21IFA | 21IFA | 37.5 | 0.7 |
| 33 | SS | Hans Montero | NyY | 21IFA | 21IFA | 37.5 | 0.7 |
| 34 | OF | Samuel Zavala | SD | 21IFA | 21IFA | 37.5 | 0.7 |
| 35 | SS | Starlin Aguilar | Sea | 21IFA | 21IFA | 37.5 | 0.7 |
| 36 | SS | Carlos Colmenarez | TB | 21IFA | 21IFA | 37.5 | 0.7 |
| 37 | SS | Danyer Cueva | Tex | 21IFA | 21IFA | 37.5 | 0.7 |
| 38 | SS | Brady McConnell | KC | NL | NL | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 39 | OF | Joe Gray | Mil | NL | NL | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 40 | SS | Miguel Tejada Jr | Phi | NL | NL | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Summary
Well, hard to be too judgemental with this one. Nelly walked on to a team fighting to compete, and inherited a team with limited farm to work with.
Although the order of prospects with equivalent values is effectively random, I still find it amusing that the top 3 prospects of the “Formerly Known as Mauling Tigers” franchise are catchers. Because of course they would be. They’re decent enough too, but I personally shudder at the thought of investing that much of my prospect capital in the catcher position.
Beyond that you have a trio of interesting shortstops and a slew of “guys”. What may be the biggest “miss” of the BA handbook is reflected in Yermin Mercedes being a mere Depth Chart listed prospect. Whether his current performance is real or not, that seems to be a fairly clear slight at this point. Perhaps an updated grade/risk combo would prop the entire farm system up a peg or two. At the end of the farm you have the 2nd most 2021 IFA’s (6), that could all provide extra boost to his valuation next season when/if they receive proper BA Handbook grades.
There are enough lottery ticket question marks to see a mid-tier farm forming from this group, but you have to wonder how aggressive Nelly will be when it comes to competing. If he opts to trade away any and all talent that develops under his watch, we should continue to expect to see the Nellamaniacs in the bottom quarter of farms. If he’s willing to coast on his solid competitive squad, maybe a top 10 farm system develops in 2-3 years.
Welcome back to the CPL, Nelly.
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