For an explanation on the distinction between the “Exponential” and “Linear” rankings given below, please refer to my earlier post “Farm System Primer”. I know it’s tedious, but I had just enough details that I felt needed to review, that I didn’t want to start off each Farm System Breakdown post with 4 paragraphs of jargon. And of course, any questions, feel free to inquire within.
Top 30 Rank (Exponential/Linear): 7/7
Total Rank (Exp/Lin): 7/11
Average of Total Rank (Exp/Lin): 3/4
Average Prospect Grade/Risk (Exp/Lin): 53.7/High / 48/High
Total Prospects: 38
Groups of 15 Rankings
| Exponential Rankings | Grouping | Linear Rankings |
| 5 | 1-15 | 5 |
| 25 | 16-30 | 25 |
| 45 | 31-45 | 48 |
Organization Prospect Rankings
MPTK = “More Players to Know” section of Handbook, DC = Depth Chart of Handbook, 21IFA = IFA signed and drafted in 2021, NL = Not listed in handbook under any sections
| Prosp Rank | Pos | Name | Tm | Grade | Risk | Lin Value | Exp Value |
| 1 | C | Adley Rutschman | Bal | 70 | High | 80.0 | 256.0 |
| 2 | SP | Ian Anderson | Atl | 60 | Medium | 75.0 | 128.0 |
| 3 | OF | Riley Greene | Det | 60 | High | 70.0 | 64.0 |
| 4 | OF | JJ Bleday | Mia | 60 | High | 70.0 | 64.0 |
| 5 | SP | Spencer Howard | Phi | 60 | High | 70.0 | 64.0 |
| 6 | SP | Nick Lodolo | Cin | 55 | High | 65.0 | 32.0 |
| 7 | SP | Bobby Miller | LaD | 55 | High | 65.0 | 32.0 |
| 8 | OF | Garrett Mitchell | Mil | 60 | Extreme | 65.0 | 32.0 |
| 9 | SP | A.J. Puk | Oak | 60 | Extreme | 65.0 | 32.0 |
| 10 | SP | Shane Baz | Pit | 60 | Extreme | 65.0 | 32.0 |
| 11 | RP | Daysbel Hernandez | Atl | 50 | High | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 12 | SS | Owen Miller | Cle | 45 | Medium | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 13 | OF | Kyle Isbel | KC | 50 | High | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 14 | OF | Luis Rodriguez | LaD | 55 | Extreme | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 15 | SP | Matt Canterino | Min | 50 | High | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 16 | SP | Jared Jones | Pit | 55 | Extreme | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 17 | SP | Carmen Mlodzinski | Pit | 50 | High | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 18 | SP | Sean Hjelle | SF | 50 | High | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 19 | SP | Edwin Nunez | StL | 55 | Extreme | 60.0 | 16.0 |
| 20 | OF | Cole Roederer | ChC | 50 | Very High | 57.5 | 11.3 |
| 21 | SP | Taj Bradley | TB | 50 | Very High | 57.5 | 11.3 |
| 22 | 2B | Nick Yorke | Bos | 50 | Extreme | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 23 | 1B | Gavin Sheets | ChW | 45 | High | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 24 | RP | Matt Foster | ChW | 40 | Medium | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 25 | OF | Jameson Hannah | Col | 45 | High | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 26 | SP | Thomas Szapucki | NyM | 45 | High | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 27 | OF | Greg Deichmann | Oak | 45 | High | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 28 | OF | Tirso Ornelas | SD | 45 | High | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 29 | SP | Anderson Espinoza | SD | 50 | Extreme | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 30 | SS | Osleivis Basabe | TB | 50 | Extreme | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 31 | RP | Ryan Thompson | TB | 40 | Medium | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 32 | SS | Maximo Acosta | Tex | 50 | Extreme | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 33 | SP | Anthony Kay | Tor | 40 | Medium | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 34 | SP | Thomas Hatch | Tor | 40 | Medium | 55.0 | 8.0 |
| 35 | SP | Joe Palumbo | Tex | 45 | Very High | 52.5 | 5.7 |
| 36 | 3B | Jake Burger | ChW | 45 | Extreme | 50.0 | 4.0 |
| 37 | SP | Matt Tabor | Ari | DC | DC | 40.0 | 1.0 |
| 38 | SP | Michael Shawaryn | Bos | NL | NL | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Summary
We’re starting to see some of the previously established groupings of prospects expand at this point. This is the first farm where the top 10 is comprised entirely of upper tiered prospects, and I imagine going forward this difference will be how big this grouping is.
At the top Adley provides elite value, followed closely by Ian Anderson. Greene, Bleday and Spencer Howard comprise the next tier of prospects. Rounding out the top 10 you have Lodolo, Bobby Miller, Garrett Mitchell, Puk and Baz. In the tier of “guys” you have some interesting names in Isbel, Hjelle, Roederer and Taj Bradley. And in the fringy category, highlights include Gavin Sheets, Nick Yorke, Jameson Hannah, Greg Deichmann and Acosta.
While the top of this farm system is certainly impressive, perhaps the systems biggest positive can be seen in the average rankings it receives, as despite coming in at 7th for both top 30 and overall value, this farm comes in at 3rd overall by average prospect value. A big part of that is the complete lack of fluff prospects at the bottom as there are only 4 prospects below fringe value in the whole farm system. What you end up with is a top 8 farm system comprised of a robust top 10, an average next 26, and that’s about it. Without being diluted by prospects out of their respective organizations top 30, you end up with a higher than expected average value throughout.
I was frankly surprised at how much I liked the Baby Seals farm system. Considering the MLB level talent that they have pieced together over time, I was expecting a middling farm on it’s way down the list. And certainly, some of the top prospects, in particular the top 3 are expected to graduate in the next year or two. However, there is plenty of talent in the rest of the system to take their place and buoy this system enough to keep them in the middle of the rankings. Indeed, considering the level of talent at the MLB, and the relative talent in the farm, Baby Seals could make a case for having the most talent total value in the CPL.
Well done Fred. Here’s to continuing our tradition of never facing each other in the playoffs.
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