Comparing 2022 End of Season Standing Projections Vs Actuals – AL East

Original Projected Standings

Actual End of Season Standings

Difference

The order was spot on, but every franchise was off by a little bit.

Before we get into franchise breakdowns, one quick caveat.

For “Key Additions”, the way I’m set up right now, I can’t differentiate which team a player accrued stats on. As I’m looking at opening day and closing day rosters only, if a player hopped around here or there, I have no reference for confirming that at this time. So, as a result, the “Key Additions” section reflects how much WAR that player accumulated throughout the entire season. This may or may not have been all with the franchise in question.

There are many other caveats, but I will save you from the block of text. Any questions, corrections or comments, like always, feel free to leave them in the comments below or message me directly.

Fajita Eaters ’22

Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = 14.6 Wins

Fajita Eaters Actual Wins – Projected Wins = 4 games

Not sure why there is a 10 game difference between the calculated difference and the actual difference. I’ll have to look into that a bit more. Either way, what we’re left with is an under-performing Fajita Eaters offense paired with a Pitching squad that slightly over-performed their projections (40.4 Projected vs 41.6 Actual). The big reason why Fajita Eaters was able to beat their projections was the additional 18.8 WAR generated by pitchers that were not on their squad for opening day, over half of which came from two key relievers (see below).

FE ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers

FE ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players

FE Key Additions

Tom Cat’s ’22

Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = 23.9 Wins

Tom Cat’s Actual Wins – Projected Wins = 15 games

Getting better? A difference of 8.9 Wins could reasonably be explained by pieces who made appearances on the pro roster throughout the season to fill in for injuries or cycle through that last bench spot. I dunno, moving on. We have a somewhat similar story to the Fajita Eaters, where the hitters under-performed significantly, but the arms made up for it. In this case though, it was the Starting Pitchers who were responsible for making up almost all of the ground. Some key additions helped, with the additions from the hitters almost entirely making up for the difference between the Projected and Actual WAR. Let’s take a look.

TC ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers

TC ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players

TC Key Additions

G.I. Zo’s ’22

Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = -30.6 Wins

G.I. Zo’s Actual Wins – Projected Wins = -18.5 games

Wow. I just….I don’t even know where to start. You’ll see below that at least one significant contributor to this decidedly modest generation of Wins was traded away mid-season. Without that contribution…I don’t even know what we would be looking at. Negative WAR from the hitters, both opening day and added throughout the season. Pitching generated a literal handful of WAR, but again, additions actually detracted from that minor relief. The overall result is exactly what you’d expect. The #1 overall pick in the 2023 draft. Well done Zo.

GIZ ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers

GIZ ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players

GIZ Key Additions

Banocolates ’22

Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = +7.3 Wins

Banocolates Actual Wins – Projected Wins = +11.5 games

Closest alignment yet, with only a few games separating the WAR analysis and the analysis of the teams record. The AL Beast seems have been running a trend in 2022. Another under-performing offense, supplemented by a solid pitching crew, propped up by some additions. This time, as with the Fajita Eaters, we have relief pitching additions as the strongest reason why Banocolates exceed their projections.

BC ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers

BC ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players

BC ’22 Key Additions