Original Projected Standings
| AL East | Team | W | L | T | Win% |
| 1 | Your Mom | 198 | 116 | 22 | 0.616 |
| 2 | Baby Seals | 177 | 135 | 24 | 0.563 |
| 3 | The Big Units | 170 | 142 | 24 | 0.534 |
| 4 | BROB’s Barnacles | 115 | 198 | 23 | 0.376 |
Actual End of Season Standings
| RK | Team | W | L | T | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Your Mom | 227 | 95 | 14 | .696 |
| 2 | Baby Seals | 165 | 151 | 20 | .521 |
| 3 | The Big Units | 152 | 160 | 24 | .488 |
| 4 | BROB’s Barnacles | 116 | 195 | 25 | .382 |
Difference
Again we’re good with the order, but most franchises still off by a bit. Some cases a big bit. BROB’s Barnacles though, almost spot on. I’ll take that as a “W”.
| Rk | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| 1 | Your Mom | +29 | -21 | -8 | +.080 (+25 games) |
| 2 | Baby Seals | -12 | +16 | -4 | -.042 (-14 games) |
| 3 | The Big Units | -18 | +18 | 0 | -.046 (-18 games) |
| 4 | BROB’s Barnacles | +1 | -3 | +2 | +.006 (+2 games) |
| Total | -.002 (-5 games) |
Before we get into franchise breakdowns, one additional caveat.
Again, for “Key Additions”. “Key Additions” refers to any player who was brought up to the 30 man roster at some point throughout the season, but who did not start on the Opening Day 30 man roster. This can be prospect graduations/CPL promotions, trade acquisitions, or free agent additions. The only requirement is that they were on your 30 man roster at the end of the CPL season, as I am only looking at the difference between opening day and closing day rosters. For further clarity on that caveat, see the last article I posted on the AL East.
There are many other caveats, but I will save you from the block of text. Any questions, corrections or comments, like always, feel free to leave them in the comments below or message me directly.
Your Mom ’22
| Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total | |
| Projected xWAR | 60.1 | 31.3 | 30.1 | 111.6 |
| Actual WAR | 57.7 | 49.4 | 18.2 | 125.3 |
| WAR from additions | 5.2 | 16.0 | 1.6 | 22.8 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 62.9 | 65.4 | 19.8 | 148.1 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = 36.5 Wins
Your Mom Actual Wins – Projected Wins = +25 games
Again, a lot more Wins generated than what you see in the standings. Good for them and all that. Hitters just barely failed up to live to their high expectations and Starting Pitching exceeded their projections, but in a bit of a surprise, Relief Pitchers seemed to really struggle on the Your Mom squad. Kinda insane to think how 2023 would have gone if the bullpen had met or exceeded their projections too. Still, with the arms nearly doubling their Opening Day projection, it’s easy to see how the record breaking 2023 season came to be.
YM ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Player | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Joey Gallo | 2.8 | -0.2 | -3.0 |
| Byron Buxton | 6.1 | 4.6 | -1.5 |
| Ketel Marte | 3.9 | 2.5 | -1.4 |
| Huascar Ynoa | 2.5 | -0.6 | -3.1 |
| Chris Sale | 3.6 | 0.5 | -3.1 |
| Jake McGee | 7.9 | 0.2 | -7.7 |
| Gregory Soto | 6.0 | 1.0 | -5.0 |
| Kenley Jansen | 6.7 | 5.3 | -1.4 |
YM ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Player | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Julio Rodriguez | 2.4 | 7.2 | +4.8 |
| Pete Alonso | 3.5 | 7.1 | +3.6 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.1 | 2.9 | +2.8 |
| Yu Darvish | 4.7 | 11.8 | +7.1 |
| Max Fried | 4.7 | 11.5 | +6.8 |
| Shane McClanahan | 4.0 | 9.5 | +5.5 |
| Daniel Bard | 0.0 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Edwin Diaz | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 |
YM Key Additions
| Player | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Willson Contreras | +4.1 |
| Jose Miranda | +1.2 |
| Austin Slater | -0.1 |
| Tyler Anderson | +5.9 |
| Luis Severino | +5.3 |
| Corey Kluber | +4.8 |
| Joe Mantiply | +1.6 |
Baby Seals ’22
| | Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total |
| Projected xWAR | 43.4 | 30.6 | 13.1 | 87.1 |
| Actual WAR | 25.5 | 27.2 | 15.3 | 67.7 |
| WAR from additions | 4.0 | 4.2 | -0.7 | 7.5 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 29.5 | 31.4 | 14.6 | 75.2 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = -11.9 Wins
Baby Seals Actual Wins – Projected Wins = -14 games
Ok, finally, some reasonable synchronization. Starting pitchers just barely under-performed, and were reasonably made whole again with in-season additions. Relief pitchers just barely over-performed, and were hurt my some additions. The real story though is how the Baby Seals hitters greatly under-performed, being essentially entirely responsible for the overall deficit of ~12 Wins. It would take much more than hitting par for Baby Seals to be challenging for division lead, but if the bats can come back around, a playoff appearance as a wild card would be much more feasible.
BS ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Player | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Trea Turner | 10.7 | 7.3 | -3.4 |
| Eddie Rosario | 3.0 | -0.4 | -3.4 |
| Mitch Haniger | 3.5 | 0.3 | -3.2 |
| Walker Buehler | 6.1 | 2.5 | -3.6 |
| Lucas Giolito | 5.6 | 3.8 | -1.8 |
| Freddy Peralta | 5.0 | 3.8 | -1.2 |
| Will Smith | 5.5 | 2.8 | -2.7 |
| Emilio Pagan | 4.1 | 2.1 | -2.0 |
| Jarlin Garcia | 1.3 | -0.3 | -1.6 |
BS ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Jean Segura | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 |
| Keston Hiura | 0.2 | 0.6 | +0.4 |
| Kyle Isbel | 0.2 | 0.5 | +0.3 |
| Cal Quantrill | 3.6 | 7.2 | +3.6 |
| Ian Anderson | 3.4 | 3.6 | +0.2 |
| Anthony Bass | 1.2 | 5.2 | +4.0 |
| A.J. Puk | 0.0 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Tanner Rainey | 0.8 | 2.8 | +2.0 |
BS Key Additions
| Player | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Adley Rutschman | +2.9 |
| Manuel Margot | +0.9 |
| Owen Miller | +0.2 |
| Brady Singer | +3.3 |
| Nick Lodolo | +0.9 |
| Ryan Thompson | -0.7 |
BROB’s Barnacles ’22
| | Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total |
| Projected xWAR | 23.1 | 17.1 | 14.4 | 54.6 |
| Actual WAR | 5.5 | 24.0 | 13.7 | 43.2 |
| WAR from additions | 1.6 | 5.6 | -0.4 | 6.8 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 7.1 | 29.6 | 13.3 | 50.0 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = -4.6 Wins
BROB’s Barnacles Actual Wins – Projected Wins = +2 games
Man, those hitters are in rough shape. Doubtless the IP minimum kept the arms afloat, and more importantly, rostered, on BROB’s Barnacles until deemed non-essential. Really looking forward to how the ’23 projections will look without that pesky IP Minimum obstacle. Important to note, because of the way ESPN is formatted, Ohtani was only counted as an SP in the original projections. This is not the case when evaluating the “Actuals”, so while there is a (-4.6) between the Projected minus Actuals, it probably would’ve been a decent bit higher if Ohtani’s bat was truly taken into account. As it is, BROB had to settle for pick #2 in the 2023 draft. Poor guy.
BB ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 3.6 | -0.1 | -3.7 |
| Cavan Biggio | 3.2 | 0.3 | -2.9 |
| Josh Bell | 3.9 | 1.6 | -2.3 |
| Caleb Smith | 2.2 | -0.6 | -2.8 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 2.9 | 2.7 | -0.2 |
| Ken Giles | 3.3 | 0.0 | -3.3 |
| David Phelps | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Pedro Baez | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
BB ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Jameson Taillon | 2.9 | 7.2 | +4.3 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 4.0 | 6.2 | +2.2 |
| Vince Velasquez | 0.4 | 1.5 | +1.1 |
| Dillon Tate | 2.8 | 4.9 | +2.1 |
| J.P. Feyereisen | 3.8 | 4.6 | +0.8 |
| Corey Knebel | 4.1 | 4.4 | +0.3 |
BB Key Additions
| Players | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.2 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 1.2 |
| Mike Moustakas | -0.1 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.3 |
| Jeffrey Springs | 6.0 |
| Yonny Chirinos | 0.3 |
| Daniel Norris | -0.7 |
| Eli Morgan | -0.4 |
The Big Units ’22
| | Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total |
| Projected xWAR | 51.7 | 23.0 | 16.9 | 91.6 |
| Actual WAR | 37.2 | 28.5 | 16.0 | 81.7 |
| WAR from additions | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 38.5 | 28.6 | 16.0 | 83.1 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = -8.5 Wins
The Big Units Actual Wins – Projected Wins = -18 games
Rough go of it. A decidedly odd analysis compared to the first 7 franchises. Hitters under-performed, but that’s not the strange part. Pitchers actually exceeded their projected WAR value, and I think it’s fair to call relievers essentially a wash. The oddness comes from the complete lack of support throughout the season. A measly 1.4 additional WAR came from players who did not start the season on The Big Units 30 man opening day roster. The result is a roster that more or less met reasonable approximations of their outcome (at least compared to previous analysis), but the overall effect was a fairly hefty under achievement. Further, the -8.5 Wins compared to projection was greatly exceeded in the W/L columns (-18 vs -8.5). I haven’t been tracking this to date, but I get the feeling that this is the biggest discrepancy so far. For sure The Big Units are looking forward to a much more forgiving 2023.
TBU ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Bryce Harper | 9.0 | 4.9 | -4.1 |
| C.J. Cron | 4.0 | 1.4 | -2.6 |
| Whit Merrifield | 4.0 | 1.5 | -2.5 |
| Patrick Corbin | 2.8 | -2.3 | -5.1 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 4.3 | 3.8 | -0.5 |
| Lucas Sims | 6.1 | -0.4 | -6.5 |
| Alex Colome | 2.3 | 0.5 | -1.8 |
| Ryne Stanek | 3.6 | 2.4 | -1.2 |
TBU ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Nolan Arenado | 4.0 | 5.2 | +1.2 |
| Tony Gonsolin | 2.9 | 9.8 | +6.9 |
| Jordan Montgomery | 3.6 | 9.2 | +5.6 |
| Jon Gray | 3.1 | 4.6 | +1.5 |
| Hector Neris | 3.6 | 7.1 | +3.5 |
| Yimi Garcia | 0.0 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| Aaron Loup | 1.0 | 3.0 | +2.0 |
TBU ’22 Key Additions
| Players | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Alejandro Kirk | +1.3 |
| Nomar Mazara | 0.0 |
| Jakob Junis | +0.1 |
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