Original Projected Standings
| AL East | Team | W | L | T | Win% |
| 1 | Rollin’ Goats | 178 | 135 | 23 | 0.583 |
| 2 | Nelly’s Nellamaniacs | 171 | 142 | 23 | 0.543 |
| 3 | The Big Hurts | 160 | 152 | 24 | 0.513 |
| 4 | Ball Busters | 122 | 190 | 24 | 0.400 |
Actual End of Season Standings
| RK | Team | W | L | T | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Big Hurts | 165 | 151 | 20 | .521 |
| 2 | Nelly’s Nellamaniacs | 154 | 147 | 35 | .510 |
| 3 | Rollin’ Goats | 144 | 176 | 16 | .452 |
| 4 | Ball Busters | 137 | 182 | 17 | .433 |
Difference
Seems the projection system finally fell flat. By quite a bit. Rollin’ Goats had quite a fall from grace. Nelly’s Nellamaniacs and the Big Hurts essentially switched places, mostly due to Nelly’s mind boggling 35 ties. I’m not tracking that stat, but I’m just going to assume that’s a record, because it’s nuts. At least the model got one thing right though. Thanks for the support Eric!
| Rk | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| 1 | The Big Hurts | +5 | -1 | -4 | +.009 (+3 games) |
| 2 | Nelly’s Nellamaniacs | -17 | +5 | +12 | -.033 (-11 games) |
| 3 | Rollin’ Goats | -34 | +41 | -7 | -.131 (-37.5 games) |
| 4 | Ball Busters | +15 | -8 | -7 | +.033 (+11.5 games) |
| Total | -.122 (-57 games) |
No caveats this time! Straight to the break down. Enjoy.
Rollin’ Goats ’22
| Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total | |
| Projected xWAR | 42.2 | 31.4 | 36.0 | 109.6 |
| Actual WAR | 14.6 | 33.2 | 19.0 | 66.8 |
| WAR from additions | 8.5 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 17.3 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 23.1 | 35.9 | 25.1 | 84.1 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = -25.5 Wins
Rollin’ Goats Actual Wins – Projected Wins = -37.5 games
Both the hitters and relievers really let Rollin’ Goats down last season. Pitching met expectations, but that was far too little to overcome the shortcomings of the rest of the team. Some good acquisitions and a couple bright spots, but it’s hard to see too many silver linings in what can only be described as a disappointing season for fans of the Goats. Onto 2023 and brighter horizons, eh?
RG ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Player | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Yasmani Grandal | 5.4 | -0.2 | -5.6 |
| Trent Grisham | 3.8 | -0.5 | -4.3 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 5.5 | 2.3 | -3.2 |
| Tyler Mahle | 4.3 | 2.3 | -2.0 |
| Kevin Gausman | 5.5 | 4.1 | -1.4 |
| Tyler Megill | 2.1 | 1.5 | -0.6 |
| Tyler Rogers | 7.3 | -0.3 | -7.6 |
| Giovanny Gallegos | 8.2 | 2.4 | -5.8 |
| Liam Hendriks | 8.4 | 4.9 | -3.5 |
RG ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Player | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 | 3.1 | +2.6 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 | 1.1 | +0.6 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 1.0 | 1.3 | +0.3 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.3 | 8.7 | +3.4 |
| Corbin Burnes | 6.7 | 8.7 | +2.0 |
| Pablo Lopez | 4.3 | 4.8 | +0.5 |
| David Bednar | 0.1 | 2.7 | +2.6 |
RG Key Additions
| Player | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Cal Raleigh | +1.2 |
| Xander Bogaerts | +6.1 |
| Brendan Donovan | +1.2 |
| Nick Fortes | -0.3 |
| J.D. Davis | +0.3 |
| Drew Rasmussen | +2.8 |
| Dustin May | -0.1 |
| Seranthony Dominguez | +1.8 |
| Clay Holmes | +3.3 |
| Domingo Acevedo | +1.0 |
Nelly’s Nellamaniacs ’22
| | Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total |
| Projected xWAR | 49.0 | 27.9 | 13.9 | 90.8 |
| Actual WAR | 30.9 | 19.3 | 8.5 | 58.7 |
| WAR from additions | 2.6 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 20.3 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 33.5 | 29.2 | 16.3 | 79.0 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = -11.8 Wins
Nelly’s Nellamaniacs Actual Wins – Projected Wins = -11 games
Oooh, that’s what I like to see. Spot on, nearly perfect synchronization between record and WAR. Again, like so many teams before him, Nelly’s hitters seemed to come up short of their projections. The arms were able to break equal due to the additions making up for the starting 30 falling fairly flat. The end result is 2nd in the division, fighting for a wild card slot.
NN ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Player | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Kris Bryant | 6.6 | 0.4 | -6.2 |
| Tyler Wade | 4.4 | -0.1 | -4.5 |
| Brandon Lowe | 5.4 | 1.1 | -4.3 |
| Aaron Civale | 3.5 | -0.8 | -4.3 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 3.9 | 0.9 | -3.0 |
| Hyun Jin Ryu | 3.8 | 0.8 | -3.0 |
| Josh Staumont | 4.5 | 1.1 | -3.4 |
| Aaron Bummer | 4.8 | 1.9 | -2.9 |
| Collin McHugh | 3.3 | 0.5 | -2.8 |
NN ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 |
| Santiago Espinal | 0.1 | 1.9 | +1.8 |
| Tyler Naquin | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 | 8.7 | +3.2 |
| Joe Ryan | 3.5 | 4.7 | +1.2 |
| David Robertson | 0.3 | 4.7 | +4.4 |
| Jeurys Familia | 0.1 | 0.4 | +0.3 |
NN Key Additions
| Player | WAR generated throughout Season |
| P.J. Higgins | -0.1 |
| Evan Longoria | +1.4 |
| Thairo Estrada | +1.3 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.0 |
| Alex Verdugo | +1.1 |
| Jurickson Profar | +2.2 |
| Seth Brown | +0.8 |
| Garrett Cooper | +0.8 |
| Merrill Kelly | +6.0 |
| Taijuan Walker | +4.1 |
| Jordan Lyles | -0.2 |
| Adam Cimber | +2.7 |
| Colin Poche | +2.5 |
| Tanner Scott | +1.4 |
| Cionel Perez | +1.2 |
Ball Busters ’22
| | Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total |
| Projected xWAR | 29.7 | 21.9 | 3.2 | 54.8 |
| Actual WAR | 11.8 | 16.1 | 3.7 | 31.6 |
| WAR from additions | 3.8 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 15.4 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 15.6 | 20.1 | 11.3 | 47.0 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = -7.8 Wins
Ball Busters Actual Wins – Projected Wins = +11.5 games
Kind of a confusing result here. Ball Busters generated negative net WAR, but exceeded their projected Win total. But, given the huge volume of Additions rostered by the end of the season, that may be due to simply having monster roster churn, picking up and dropping Wins throughout the season that escaped this analysis. Just a theory though. Starting pitchers were able to more or less meet their projected Win total, and the relievers greatly exceed there’s, mostly on the back of additions. Perhaps if the hitters were able to meet their expectations, Ball Busters may be pushing for a wild card slot themselves. Maybe.
BB ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Akil Baddoo | 3.9 | -0.1 | -4.0 |
| Wander Franco | 4.7 | 0.9 | -3.8 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 2.2 | -0.8 | -3.0 |
| Kric Bubic | 2.4 | -0.5 | -2.9 |
| Tanner Houck | 3.2 | 0.7 | -2.5 |
| Elieser Hernandez | 3.4 | 1.5 | -1.9 |
| Jose Alvarado | 2.9 | 0.2 | -2.7 |
| Jalen Beeks | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
BB ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Jace Peterson | 0.2 | 1.3 | +1.1 |
| Luis Garcia | 0.1 | 0.7 | +0.6 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.1 | 0.2 | +0.1 |
| Luis Garcia | 4.3 | 5.9 | +1.6 |
| Tyler Wells | 2.9 | 3.6 | +0.7 |
| Clarke Schmidt | -1.7 | 0.6 | +2.3 |
| Garrett Whitlock | 2.0 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
BB Key Additions
| Players | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Jonah Heim | +1.5 |
| Luis Rengifo | +0.4 |
| Josh Naylor | +2.0 |
| Dean Kremer | +3.1 |
| Glenn Otto | +2.2 |
| Antonio Senzatela | -1.3 |
| Jhoan Duran | +5.6 |
| Alexis Diaz | +0.4 |
| Matt Strahm | +1.6 |
The Big Hurts ’22
| | Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total |
| Projected xWAR | 39.8 | 28.6 | 15.0 | 83.4 |
| Actual WAR | 26.8 | 38.7 | 12.7 | 78.2 |
| WAR from additions | 4.1 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 9.4 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 30.9 | 43.5 | 13.2 | 87.6 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = +4.2 Wins
The Big Hurts Actual Wins – Projected Wins = +3 games
Projections are finishing on a high note here! Hitters under-achieved, pitchers over-achieved and relievers more or less broke even. This script feels like it’s getting old. Regardless of how cliche the season worked out for The Big Hurts, it was enough to take the division. I don’t know if I would count on a repeat of the division finishing in such dire straits though, so I’m sure the Hurts are hoping for an improvement on their record in 2023.
TBH ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 6.2 | 0.0 | -6.2 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 7.6 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| Kolten Wong | 4.7 | 3.1 | -1.6 |
| James Kaprielian | 2.6 | 2.1 | -0.5 |
| Matt Barnes | 5.7 | -0.2 | -5.9 |
| Jake Diekman | 4.2 | 1.5 | -2.7 |
| Michael Fulmer | 4.3 | 3.7 | -0.6 |
TBH ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Joc Pederson | 1.2 | 2.6 | +1.4 |
| Yandy Diaz | 2.3 | 3.5 | +1.2 |
| Victor Robles | 0.2 | 0.5 | +0.3 |
| Dylan Cease | 4.5 | 11.3 | +6.8 |
| Shane Bieber | 5.9 | 8.4 | +2.5 |
| Luis Castillo | 4.0 | 5.7 | +1.7 |
| Andres Munoz | -0.1 | 6.7 | +6.8 |
| Michael Lorenzen | -1.9 | 1.0 | +2.9 |
TBH ’22 Key Additions
| Players | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Luis Guillorme | +0.4 |
| Josh Harrison | +0.4 |
| Josh Bell | +1.6 |
| Travis D’Arnaud | +1.5 |
| Gilberto Celestino | +0.3 |
| Alan Trejo | -0.1 |
| Johnny Cueto | +4.8 |
| Wil Crowe | +0.5 |
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