Original Projected Standings
| AL East | Team | W | L | T | Win% |
| 1 | Motley Shue | 177 | 136 | 23 | 0.561 |
| 2 | Kelly’s Heroes | 170 | 143 | 23 | 0.539 |
| 3 | Danimals | 149 | 164 | 23 | 0.479 |
| 4 | Pro Bowlers | 136 | 176 | 24 | 0.440 |
Actual End of Season Standings
| RK | Team | W | L | T | PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelly’s Heroes | 187 | 128 | 21 | 0.588 |
| 2 | Danimals | 165 | 143 | 28 | 0.533 |
| 3 | Pro Bowlers | 162 | 154 | 20 | 0.512 |
| 4 | Motley Shue | 146 | 168 | 22 | 0.467 |
Difference
Seems
| Rk | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| 1 | Kelly’s Heroes | +17 | -15 | -2 | +0.049 (16 games) |
| 2 | Danimals | +16 | -21 | +5 | +0.054 (18.5 games) |
| 3 | Pro Bowlers | +26 | -22 | -4 | +0.072 (+24 games) |
| 4 | Motley Shue | -31 | +32 | -1 | -0.094 (-31.5 games) |
| Total | +0.081 (+27 games) |
Kinda similar to the NL East. 3 teams exceeded their projections by a fairly healthy margin, while the jewel of the CPL struggled to get to live up to their lofty expectations. I’m sure a deeper analysis might pay off in understanding how one divisions over-performance and another’s under-performance parlay into one another, but that’s not what I’m here for. Congrats to Kelly’s Heroes for a very fine finale season for the previous regime. Bow to Danimals for somehow managing to put together a +.500 record. All quiver in fear of the up and coming Pro Bowlers. And we don’t need to talk about Motley Shue too much. The pain runs too deep.
Kelly’s Heroes ’22
| Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total | |
| Projected xWAR | 49.0 | 24.6 | 32.1 | 105.7 |
| Actual WAR | 34.0 | 47.3 | 13.5 | 94.8 |
| WAR from additions | 2.7 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 10.8 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 36.7 | 49.4 | 19.5 | 105.6 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = -0.1 Wins
Kelly’s Heroes Actual Wins – Projected Wins = +16 games
Well, that was unexpected. Clearly JK moves his players around quite a bit. So, I feel it’s safe to say that the rosters he had between opening and closing day might have looked quite a bit different than the ones I have readily available, depending on the day. Ultimately, we’re clearly missing some info here, but in doing a shallow review, it reminds me of the Your Mom breakdown in that pitchers massively exceeded expectations, and relievers fell very flat despite the very good record at the end of the season. Let this be the last word types in honor of the Kelly’s Heroes “COVID Era” dynasty.
KH ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Player | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Adalberto Mondesi | 8.5 | 0.4 | -8.1 |
| Joey Votto | 3.2 | -0.2 | -3.4 |
| Cody Bellinger | 3.5 | 0.7 | -2.8 |
| Zach Plesac | 3.4 | 1.8 | -1.6 |
| Lou Trivino | 7.9 | 0.2 | -7.7 |
| Rowan Wick | 6.2 | -0.5 | -6.7 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 8.7 | 4.4 | -4.3 |
KH ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Player | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Jose Altuve | 4.5 | 7.5 | +3.0 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 1.8 | 3.4 | +1.6 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.7 | 1.9 | +1.2 |
| Justin Verlander | 3.6 | 12.2 | +8.6 |
| Zac Gallen | 3.9 | 10.3 | +6.4 |
| Carlos Rodon | 4.1 | 8.9 | +4.8 |
| Daniel Hudson | 0.5 | 1.5 | +1.0 |
| Blake Treinen | 0.0 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| James Karinchak | 2.0 | 2.1 | +0.1 |
KH Key Additions
| Player | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Gleyber Torres | +1.7 |
| Dylan Carlson | +0.6 |
| Brandon Marsh | +0.6 |
| Connor Joe | +0.6 |
| Adam Frazier | -0.8 |
| Graham Ashcraft | +1.9 |
| Chris Flexen | +0.2 |
| David Bednar | +2.7 |
| Luis Garcia | +1.9 |
| Scott Effross | +1.4 |
Pro Bowlers ’22
| | Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total |
| Projected xWAR | 45.9 | 14.9 | 12.5 | 73.3 |
| Actual WAR | 34.5 | 24.1 | 13.7 | 72.3 |
| WAR from additions | 6.9 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 15.4 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 41.4 | 26.6 | 19.7 | 87.7 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = +14.4 Wins
Pro Bowlers Actual Wins – Projected Wins = +24 games
Hitter and Starting Pitcher talent evened each other out, while additions throughout the season helped to push Pro Bowlers to exceed their expectations. Odd how it all shook out though. You’ll read below how the studs fell a little short, some depth pieces provided more value than what the Pro Bowlers probably hoped they would need, and some of the additions are fairly impressive names to be calling up mid-season. I’ve been saying it for a couple years now, and while the Pro Bowlers didn’t blow away the regular season competition on there way to a deep playoff run, I truly believe this is the beginning of a long running streak of playoff seasons. The future is now for the terrifying Pro Bowlers.
PB ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Player | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Juan Soto | 10.3 | 4.8 | -5.5 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 7.3 | 4.9 | -2.4 |
| Bo Bichette | 8.3 | 6.2 | -2.1 |
| Hunter Greene | 0.4 | -1.2 | -1.6 |
| Blake Snell | 4.1 | 2.6 | -1.5 |
| Matt Manning | 1.5 | 0.3 | -1.2 |
| Jorge Alcala | 6.6 | 0.0 | -6.6 |
| Carlos Estevez | 2.0 | -0.4 | -2.4 |
PB ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Andrew Vaughn | 0.1 | 2.2 | +2.1 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.4 | 0.8 | +0.4 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.4 | 0.5 | +0.1 |
| Kyle Wright | 0.3 | 9.4 | +9.1 |
| Logan Gilbert | 3.9 | 9.2 | +5.3 |
| Tyler Anderson | -0.6 | 5.9 | +6.5 |
| Camilo Doval | 2.4 | 3.9 | +1.5 |
| Aaron Ashby | -1.1 | 0.2 | +1.3 |
PB Key Additions
| Player | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Jose Trevino | +1.0 |
| Nolan Jones | 0.0 |
| Michael Harris II | +4.4 |
| Nolan Gorman | +1.3 |
| Gunnar Henderson | +0.1 |
| Vidal Brujan | +0.1 |
| Rafael Montero | +5.4 |
| Roansy Contreras | +2.3 |
| Drew Smith | +1.3 |
| Joe Jimenez | +1.3 |
Motley Shue ’22
| | Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total |
| Projected xWAR | 45.4 | 31.3 | 27.1 | 103.8 |
| Actual WAR | 33.3 | 27.0 | 11.5 | 71.8 |
| WAR from additions | 0.7 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 3.9 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 34.0 | 30.2 | 11.5 | 75.7 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = -28.1 Wins
Motley Shue Actual Wins – Projected Wins = -31.5 games
Sigh. Starting pitchers broke even. Hitters and relievers came up well short of their expectations. 3.9 WAR from additions probably doesn’t reflect the whole story, but may point to a systemic failure for the starting 30 to meet their projections even if they were healthy. All-in-all, a rough go of it. But it’s over now! 2022 be damned! Onto 2023, and the Motley Shue flags will still fly forever.
MS ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Ozzie Albies | 6.0 | 0.7 | -5.3 |
| Christian Yelich | 5.4 | 2.8 | -2.6 |
| Trevor Story | 7.3 | 3.9 | -3.4 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 3.9 | 0.1 | -3.8 |
| Jack Flaherty | 3.6 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| Brandon Woodruff | 6.4 | 3.9 | -2.5 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 7.9 | 0.2 | -7.7 |
| Josh Hader | 9.6 | 3.5 | -6.1 |
| Brusdar Graterol | 4.3 | 1.2 | -3.1 |
MS ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| George Springer | 2.3 | 4.6 | +2.3 |
| William Contreras | 0.1 | 2.0 | +1.9 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 0.1 | 0.7 | +0.6 |
| Framber Valdez | 3.9 | 8.6 | +4.7 |
| Max Scherzer | 6.2 | 8.5 | +2.3 |
| Brad Hand | 0.3 | 4.0 | +3.7 |
MS Key Additions
| Players | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Cody Bellinger | +0.7 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 3.5 |
| Madison Bumgarner | -0.3 |
Danimals ’22
| | Hitters | Starting Pitchers | Relief Pitchers | Total |
| Projected xWAR | 41.3 | 16.7 | 22.8 | 80.8 |
| Actual WAR | 36.5 | 15.1 | 27.3 | 78.9 |
| WAR from additions | 3.1 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 16.7 |
| Actual + Addition WAR | 39.6 | 25.4 | 30.6 | 95.6 |
Actual WAR + Addition WAR – Projected xWAR = +14.8 Wins
Danimals Actual Wins – Projected Wins = +18.5 games
Hugh, so that’s how he did it. I made little secret of my pessimistic view of the Danimals 2022 squad in spring of ’22, and part of this exercise has been as a result of me asking the question of “How did he do it…again”. Well, here’s the answer I support. An offense that almost hit it’s projection with the help of some additions. A starting squad that exceeded their projections, in large part due to projections. And a relief core that easily beat their 2022 targets. A big part of the success of the Danimals success in ’22 is due to some key contributors from their SP depth. Which, with the inherent weaknesses of a projection model that only looks at the Opening Day starting 30, is a good way to exceed your projections. Well done Dan. Now, please stop winning. Please.
DD ’22 Opening Day Under-Performers
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 5.2 | 2.1 | -3.1 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 3.0 | 0.1 | -2.9 |
| Josh Donaldson | 3.7 | 0.8 | -2.9 |
| Jordan Hicks | 3.3 | -1.4 | -4.7 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 1.4 | -1.7 | -3.1 |
| Matt Brash | 1.6 | -1.1 | -2.7 |
| Tyler Duffey | 4.1 | -0.1 | -4.2 |
| Chad Green | 4.1 | 0.7 | -3.4 |
| Jordan Romano | 6.7 | 5.9 | -0.8 |
DD ’22 Opening Day Breakout Players
| Players | Projected xWAR | Actual WAR | Difference |
| Aaron Judge | 5.8 | 12.8 | +7.0 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.2 | 2.1 | +1.9 |
| Hunter Dozier | 0.1 | 0.9 | +0.8 |
| Charlie Morton | 4.7 | 8.2 | +3.5 |
| Nick Martinez | 1.6 | 4.6 | +3.0 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 3.8 | 6.5 | +2.7 |
| A.J. Minter | 0.5 | 7.0 | +6.5 |
| Devin Williams | 5.6 | 10.9 | +5.3 |
| Diego Castillo | 1.7 | 2.9 | +1.2 |
DD ’22 Key Additions
| Players | WAR generated throughout Season |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | +0.1 |
| Jorge Mateo | +2.2 |
| Michael Stefanic | 0.0 |
| Tony Kemp | +0.8 |
| George Kirby | +4.2 |
| Drew Smyly | +1.9 |
| Ross Stripling | +2.6 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | +1.6 |
| Ryan Tepera | +3.3 |
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