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Cy Young and MVP Projections

April 5, 2024
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Why not.

Cy Young

Starting with the arms, because there aren’t a whole lot of appearances on the MVP list.

I took the ESPN projections and converted them into Wins and got the following rankings:

AL

ESPN Win RankPositionNameTeamCPL Franchise
1SPSpencer StriderAtlTom Cat’s
2SPLogan WebbSFTom Cat’s
3SPZack WheelerPhiTom Cat’s
4SPAaron NolaPhiYour Mom
5RPJordan RomanoTorTom Cat’s
6RPAdbert AlzolayChCBanocolates
7SPYohinobu YamamotoLaDG.I. Zo’s
8RPJason FoleyDetBaby Seals
9RPPaul SewaldAriTom Cat’s
10RPCarlos EstevezLaABaby Seals

NL

ESPN Win RankPositionNameTeamCPL Franchise
1RPEmmanuel ClaseCleRollin’ Goats
2SPCorbin BurnesBalRollin’ Goats
3RPClay HolmesNyYRollin’ Goats
4SPFramber ValdezHouMotley Shue
5SPLuis CastilloSeaThe Big Hurts
6RPJosh HaderHouMotley Shue
7SPGeorge KirbySeaDanimals
8SPZac GallenAriDanimals
9SPKevin GausmanTorRollin’ Goats
10RPYennier CanoBalRollin’ Goats

Now, I used “Wins” instead of the “Wins Above Replacement” for two reasons. First and foremost, the formatting for ESPN does not lend itself well to automatically pulling position information for each player. My current WAR approach is strongly impacted by a players position. I foresaw a lot of tedious manual work to isolate each players position, either manually or automatically, and didn’t have the time or inclination to see that task through to the end. I could have used a generic position factor to account for this, but, and this leads into point two, I’m not convinced it’s necessary. Doing this would have leveled out RP, SP and hitters, but what’s left when looking at total “Wins” is total impact, regardless of position. I think this could have unique value when looking at things like “Most Valuable Player” and “Best Pitcher”. The end results seem wonky as a result, as RP seem to be so elevated (sneak peak, hitters were elevated as well for MVP), but, maybe this is fair for some of the elite relievers in the game. One thing’s for sure, it’s different. Maybe not for the better, but sometimes different for the sake of different can at least be interesting.

MVP

AL

ESPN Win RankPositionPlayerTeamCPL Franchise
1OFCorbin CarrolAriFajita Eaters
2DHShohei OhtaniLaDBROB’s Barnacles
3OFJulio RodriguezSeaYour Mom
43BJose RamirezCleYour Mom
51BFreddie FreemanLaDThe Big Units
61BMatt OlsonAtlBaby Seals
7SSTrea TurnerPhiBaby Seals
8SSElly De La CruzCinFajita Eaters
91BBryce HarperPhiThe Big Units
102BMarcus SemienTexYour Mom

NL

ESPN Win RankPositionPlayerTeamCPL Franchise
1OFRonald Acuna Jr.AtlThe Big Hurts
2OFKyle TuckerHouPro Bowlers
3OFJuan SotoNyYPro Bowlers
4SSBobby Witt Jr.KCMotley Shue
5OFMookie BettsLaDDanimals
6OFFernando Tatis Jr.LaDThe Big Hurts
7OFAaron JudgeNyYDanimals
8OFEvan CarterTexPro Bowlers
91BPaul GoldschmidtStLNellamaniacs
10OFChristian YelichMilMotley Shue

Welp, there you have it. If the ESPN projections hold, these are the players that should contribute the most Wins in the CPL. But, as we all know, projections are inherently meaningless. So, what that leaves us is a list of names that should have the highest probability of taking home the MVP, despite the reality that the final results will look almost nothing like the stats ESPN projects.

I had fun though. So, I guess that’s all that matters.

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