ESPN Projections

As promised, below are the CPL season projection based on the ESPN player projections.

This year I made one significant adjustment to the overall process. I have adjusted the possible range of outcomes for teams based on how much of a stat they’re projected to accumulate.

Last seasons projections gave every team the same range of outcomes. For instance, every team’s weekly stolen base category had a +/- of 3 from whatever their average for the season was calculated to be.

However, in further investigating this assumption, I found that teams with higher projected stolen bases had a wider range of outcomes, for instance a +/- of 5 SBs. This is in contrast for teams on the lower end of the spectrum which may only have had a +/- of 2 SBs. I’m making these exact numbers up, but the concept is what’s important here.

I was able to apply this logic to all categories, in such a way that even categories that are fairly consistent in the range of outcomes regardless of totals (hits, runs, batting average, etc), weren’t negatively impacted.

I used 2019 statistics to drive these ranges, looking at how much teams at the lower and higher end of the spectrum fluctuated in their outputs. So, while it’s the most recent set of total data, it’s still possible that the relationships I used from 2019 aren’t as applicable in 2021 due to statistical drift. But, it is what it is.

Now, with that out of the way, see the fruits of my labor below.

For good measure, here are the Roto standings, that directly drive the CPL Season Projections:

And translated into Roto Points:

Gotta say, love the interface for inserting tables into articles now. Hopefully it shows up as well on the site as it does in the preview.

Any and all questions, feel free to send them my way. I’ll be happy to discuss any part of my process.