ESPN Projections – NL East

We continue the series with a breakdown of the ESPN projections for the NL East.

Overview:

NL East 1st Place – Nellys Nellamaniacs

Record: 171/141/24 – 0.545 Win%
CPL Record Rank: 8th
Roto Rankings: 6th
Strengths: Runs, HRs, RBIs, Batting Average, OPS, IP, K, W
Weaknesses: SBs, L, SV, HD, ERA

Summary: Nelly is welcomed back with arms wide open and inherits a very competitive team. While Nelly has previous experience in the insanity known as the CPL, once you’re outta the game it takes a little while to get your groove back. The CPL is nothing like riding a village bicycle. It may take a few weeks, or even months, but everyone is confident from previous experience that he will find his legs. In the mean time, Nelly won’t have too many difficult decisions to make. A solid roster without a whole lot of position battles, he can mostly coast throughout 2021 and still has a better than 50% shot at making the playoffs. But challengers beware, if Nelly finds his courage to make some splashy moves, he could easily run away with from his competition.

X-Factor – Travis Shaw: I was tempted to go with Berrios or Civale, two young pitchers who are projected for so-so ratios. If they have strong seasons or take a step forward, Nelly may be able to surpass his modest pitching rate projections. But, an even bigger concern on his roster is 1B. Between Ryan Zimmerman, Garrett Cooper and Travis Shaw, Shaw definitely has the most intrigue. For the season projections, Garrett Cooper actually had the best overall performance. Even if he had had Zimmerman on his opening day roster, Cooper still would’ve handily won out. However, considering that Shaw has the strong side of the platoon at 3B, and has started 5 of the first 7 games of the season for the Brewers, I would be willing to bet he manages to surpass his 114 projected AB. And just between me and you, I’ve always been a big fan of Shaw, and am excited at the idea of him getting another chance to redeem himself. If Shaw is able to find himself again, that will go along ways to fixing one of the biggest concerns on the Nellamaniacs starting 9.

NL East 2nd Place – The Big Hurts

Record: 167/146/23 – 0.531 Win%
CPL Record Rank: 9th
Roto Rankings: 8th
Strengths: Runs, BBs, SBs, HDs
Weaknesses: Batting Average, Losses, pitching rates

Summary: The Big Hurts have a young and exciting team, and they had a lot of hope coming into 2020. Like so many, things didn’t quite go the way they had hoped. 2021 is another year and another chance, and Vince finds himself in the thick of things yet again. Unfortunately, the season has already started off on a bad foot as two of The Big Hurts’ stars finds themselves on the IL, perhaps for an extended period of time. Perhaps Iglesias will be the savior he so desperately needs. He shouldn’t be so worried though. If he does come up short in 2021, 2022 and onward are still looking incredibly bright.

X-Factor – Clint Frazier/Kyle Lewis: One of the pleasant surprises of 2020, a lot of people are down on Kyle Lewis going into 2021 and with good reason. A 31% K Rate and .344 BABIP would normally suggest regression from his 126 WRC+. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t. That’s my hot take this season. Meanwhile, Clint Frazier might finally, kinda, sorta, maybe get a decent number of ABs in 2021. People have been screaming for years to free the beast, and with 6 starts in the Yankees first 7 games, this could finally be the year. If these two young, promising OFers are able to surpass their modest projections, it will go a long way to challenging the Nellamaniacs for the division crown.

NL East 3rd Place – Rollin’ Goats

Record: 150/162/24 – 0.483 Win%
CPL Record Rank: 12th
Roto Rankings: 13th
Strengths: HRs, BBs, HDs, ERA
Weaknesses: Bottom 6 in everything else, SVs and Batting Average are particularly brutal though

Summary: Much has been made of how little ESPN appreciates the Rollin’ Goats’ roster for 2021. The infamous “Banocolates” system is also rather down. But, Remstonks do project quite a bit of value that suggest the Goats’ depth might be their strength. Indeed, his starting hitters seem solid if unspectacular, but his bench pieces are very comparable. Perhaps his minor league squad is holding some other similar talents. While my belief is that the teams starting lineup is the most critical aspect to their success, it can’t be ignored that injuries and regression always happen. From the Rollin’ Goats’ perspective, that may be one concern that he doesn’t have to worry about as he has ample talent to sub in at a moments notice. Still, these projections suggest that he is going to need some help in the form of a fall from grace from both of the teams projected to finish ahead of him to sniff the playoffs again.

X-Factor – David Price: I was tempted to go with Dylan Carlson or Trent Grisham, as the projections for both are rather lukewarm, but I like both of these hitters a lot, and if one or both are able to breach into super-stardom in 2021, that would go a long ways to propping up the Rollin’ Goats’ offense. But I went with David Price, because so far this year, he’s been bullpen fodder. As an older pitcher coming off of a low IP season, already on the decline on a team with a lot of competitive arms and a penchant for not letting them stretch out, it stands to wonder if Price will even reach his modest 119 IP projection. And if he does, what kind of quality outcomes should we expect? The Rollin’ Goats’ pitchers have oodles of risk, but David Price may just represent the biggest boom/bust potential of them all. Time will tell if he has one more Ace performance left in him. If he even gets the chance.

NL East 4th Place – Ball Busters

Record: 87/228/21 – 0.291 Win%
CPL Record Rank: 15th
Roto Rankings: 15th
Strengths: Holds and technically Losses
Weaknesses: Bottom 2 in 10 categories, but “only” 3rd worst in SB, 4th in pitching rates, and 6th in saves

Summary: Well, Ball Busters wanted to sell off. And they sure as shootin’ managed it. Perhaps winning it all in 2020 gave him the courage to bomb as much as humanely possible. And were it not the Zo’s record breaking shortcomings, Ball Busters would probably be pushing for the #1 overall pick. But alas, he’ll settle for the #2 slot, which would be more significant if he still had his 2022 1st. Still, value is value, and his picks from the rest of the draft will still benefit. With a sell-off this fresh, it’s impossible to provide much judgement of value, or even a general timeline for when his competitive window will open again. Not positive what will give Eric the most joy in the CPL in 2021, but ogling his youth movement will definitely be at the top of his list.

X-Factor – Ian Kennedy: In a season devoid of a win target, Ball Buster’s target will be to flip his veterans and relievers for as much value as he can when the time is right. While he has a couple veterans on his roster still (Carpenter and Aaron Sanchez for instance), they’re not likely to ever demand a particularly impressive return. But Ian Kennedy was not only projected for 22 saves (and a 5 ERA, yikes), but is also the current closer in Texas and seems to be doing a bangup job so far. With any luck, he’ll be able to maintain his spot at the back of the bullpen, and Eric will be able to flip him at the deadline to a desperate squad before the rangers do it in real life.