ESPN Projections – NL West

I’m going to try writing little blurbs for each team’s projections. We’ll see how this goes.

First off, the NL West projections on the whole:

NL West 1st Place – Kelly’s Heroes

Record: 195/119/22 – 0.612 Win%
CPL Record Rank: 1st
Roto Rankings: 3rd
Strengths: Pitching volume and rates, Stolen Bases, Runs and RBIs
Weaknesses: Losses and Holds, and relatively speaking, Batting Average

Summary: JK put together one hell of a team on paper after selling off big portions of his farm this off season. I’m not positive on this, but I feel like he mostly just absorbed a big portion of the Ball Busters roster, than supplemented with supporting trades throughout the off season. Regardless of the “How”, the “What” is a very competitive team that barring disaster should find its way into the post season, and this time deservedly so. And so begins the journey of First to Worst to First.

X-Factor – Zac Gallen/Dinelson Lamet: While Lamet’s placement on the IL isn’t particularly shocking considering his off season antics, even if he was 100% healthy I’d be doubtful of a full healthy season with his history. Meanwhile the Heroes rotation took another blow when Gallen was diagnosed with a hairline fraction in his throwing arm days before the season started. The Kelly’s Heroes strength is their pitching, and missing out on any innings from these two is a big blow no matter how you spin it. There’s enough depth on this team to where counting stats should still be tenable, but it’s going to be very difficult to replace the K’s and rates that these two provide. Luckily for the Heroes, they’re projected for a 28.5 game lead over the next competitor for the wildcard spot. While Gallen and Lamet are top tier pitchers and almost impossible to replace, I still don’t see their absence dropping this team nearly 30 games over the course of a season. Still, come playoff time, JK will be counting on their health, which seems a lot more risky now than a month ago unfortunately.

NL West 2nd Place – Danimals

Record: 192/122/22 – 0.603 Win%
CPL Record Rank: 2nd
Roto Rankings: 1st
Strengths: Damn near everything (top 6 in 15 categories)
Weaknesses: Stolen Bases (ranked 15th in the CPL)

Summary: New season, same story. Since going “Worst to first” a thousand years ago, the Danimals has continued to chug along being a juggernaut in the CPL. While the Danimals have had a comfortable lead in the division for a while, the slow but steady rise of the Motley Shue franchise, paired with the Phoenix-esque development of the Kelly’s Heroes has not only put the dominance of the Danimals in 2021 at risk, but has also called into question the longevity of the Danimals’ “window”. Despite the competition that has found it’s way to his door step, do not sleep on the Danimals as they are a very strong contender for top team in the CPL this year, and for the foreseeable future.

X-Factor – Salvador Perez/Buster Posey: Hard to find an x-factor when a team has every position covered and such solid depth options. Even if one or a couple pitchers drop off, Danimals’ minor league depth appears to be enough to keep him afloat. Catcher is the most fragile position then by default. Buster Posey is on the downturn of his career without a doubt, but does he have one more all-star season left in him? Well, if he does fall short, Salvador Perez is one helluva backup. But even he has some warts that could be suspect. 30 years old, low BB%, high K%, catcher, plenty of areas of concern. But game changing power at Catcher is so hard to come by. It says something for the Danimals that the biggest concern is whether or not two All-Star catchers can live up to their reputation.

NL West 3rd Place – Motley Shue

Record: 182/131/23 – 0.574 Win%
CPL Record Rank: 5th
Roto Rankings: 2nd
Strengths: Pitching and hitting rates, Saves, HR’s, RBI’s.
Weaknesses: IP, K, Holds and stolen bases

Summary: Will the Shue-Build finally reach the playoffs? Probably. After a very impressive re-tooling, Motley Shue looked to cash in on his patience in 2020. But, it wasn’t meant to be. As many things weren’t meant to be it would seem. Still, 2021 is a new beginning and the Motley Shue’s are looking to grab it by the horns and ride it all the way to the end. Are we going to witness the beginning of an era, or will another disaster befall this talented squad? There are definitely more questions than answers after the disappointing COVID year, but also plenty of reason for optimism.

X-factor – Yordan Alvarez: There are actually plenty of options on Motley Shue’s squad to look at if you wanted to pick an X-factor. Christian Yelich is an obvious candidate after his 2020 struggles. Carlos Martinez has always teased, but has yet to live up to his potential. Yet, I went with a DH only player, on the only team in the CPL with two legitimate DH only options (see J.D. Martinez). Well, I kinda just wanted to talk about him. But, more than that, imagine if he is actually able to live up to his 35 HR/0.929 OPS 2021 projection. Man, that would be an awesome sight. And would definitely help propel Motley Shue to challenge for a division title. Luckily for him, he still has Martinez on retainer. Unluckily, he might need both to overcome Kelly’s Heroes AND Danimals.

NL West 4th Place – Pro Bowlers

Record: 118/195/23 – 0.384 Win%
CPL Record Rank: 14th
Roto Rankings: 14th
Strengths: Batting average, OPS, Losses, Saves
Weaknesses: Bottom 4 in every other roto stat

Summary: It’s been a few years since Pro Bowlers was fighting for a division title. But, things are finally starting to look promising. Don’t expect a title run in 2021, but hey, maybe 2022…..more likely 2023. Sooner rather than later is what I’m trying to get at. The biggest thing that is set to hold the Pro Bowlers back is what I would call the most competitive division in the CPL. Perhaps of all time. Until, Pro Bowlers will play the role of spoiler, and re-teach himself the rigors of managing a competitive team.

X-Factor – Vladimir Guerrero: More of a guilty pleasure than a true x-factor. Pro Bowlers isn’t looking for that missing link to fill that last gap in his offense or pitching, but Vladito will be a pivotal part of the Pro Bowlers future, and 2020 wasn’t the launching pad that everyone was hoping for. Few have doubts that he can become the dynamic bat that he was projected to be, but the hope is that he shows it more emphatically this season. My bold prediction is Vladito for 2024 CPL Champion MVP. Until then, he’ll just be a joy to watch.