Magic/Tragic Numbers – Week 19, 2021

We’re getting to the point in the season where teams are starting to clinch their end of season positions, so I thought I would resurrect the classic Magic/Tragic Numbers segment despite popular demand.

If anyone is looking for a refresher on what these numbers refer to, feel free to look back to the week 2 Magic/Tragic Numbers update from the 2020 season, where a breakdown is provided in the opening paragraph. https://cplsite.com/magic-numbers-week-2/

Current Standings

2021 has not generated particularly unexpected results.
At the top you have the eternally familiar names of Your Mom and Danimals pacing the rest of the CPL.

For the next layer you have the teams that have marked the “competitive” check box for the last few years (Kelly’s Heroes excluded of course). Unsurprising as most of these names are, the fact that the difference between 3rd best record and 7th best record is 1 game is a testament to how close this collection of franchises is in overall talent.

Then we get to the “bubble” teams. If the Motley Shue and Nelly’s Nellamaniacs franchises continue at this rate, only one of them will have a chance to make a playoff appearance. Meanwhile, The Big Units are on the outside looking in for a chance to represent the AL.

Next in line is the rebuilding and the unfortunate. While The Big Hurts have suffered well documented injustices, there lack of depth has prevented them from even treading water while their studs get healthy. The rest are teams in various states of rebuild, with some closer (Pro Bowlers, Banocolates), than other (BROB’s Barnacles, Ball Busters).

Lastly, deserving their own category, the G.I. Zo’s, through top notch management, is looking at shattering the previous record for inadequacy, and may already be reaping the benefits.

AL East

There is little interesting to report in the AL East at this point.

With 48 categories left in the season, 3rd and 4th place are practically cemented as guaranteed positions.
Meanwhile, 1st and 2nd are separated by 1 game, and as a result have nearly maxed out the respective Magic/Tragic numbers to 47.5.

AL West

Things are much more interesting in the AL West, if maybe less competitive.

BROB’s is set to clinch #4 after week 19, and the remaining positions aren’t likely to be clinched until week 20.

NL East

Similar situation in the NL East.

Goats is unlikely to clinch the division until the final week, by which time Hurts and Busters will likely have cemented themselves as #3 and #4 respectively.

NL West

In the NL West, Danimals is looking to potentially clinch in week 19, while the battle for #2 between Heroes and Shue will likely come down to the final week.

Meanwhile, Pro Bowlers is already set and coasting to a clinched #4 finish.

American League

Looking at the AL on the whole, Your Mom is looking to clinch the top spot, not in week 19, but possibly by week 20.

The rest of the playoff picture looks pretty set, even if the order may still change. Separated by only 1 game, the Tom Cat’s, Fajita Eaters and Baby Seals franchises all look like they’re going to make the playoffs, it’s just unclear who will take the AL East, and who will slot into which Wild Card position.

The Big Units are the only reasonable candidate to challenge the playoff breakdown, but would need to pour it on something fierce in the 2nd half of August to even have a chance.

Banocolates and BROB’s Barnacles are fighting it out for #6 (or #7 depending on your perspective). And with a Tragic number of 34 for BROB’s, this could still come down to the final week.

And as already mentioned, in a class all his own, G.I. Zo’s has done all he can already to clinch the bottom dweller position of the AL.

National League

Once again, Danimals is in a position to clinch top NL position in week 19.

Rollin’ Goats and Kelly’s Heroes are fighting it out for the #2 spot with the exact same record going into week 19.

Lagging behind these two is the duo of Motley Shue and Nelly’s Nellamaniacs. Separated by 3 games, they are fighting for the final layoff position, in what is turning out to be the most competitive playoff battle in the CPL.

Outside of Danimals, any clinching from these top 5 teams isn’t likely to happen until the final week of the season.

The Big Hurts is likely to be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, not this week, but maybe next.

The second most competitive battle in the CPL may belong to Ball Busters and Pro Bowlers (and BROB’s Barnacles), as 8.5 games separate the 2nd overall pick slot in the 2022 draft and the 4th.

California Penal League

I will save everyone the burden of having to stare at a massive and messy league wide breakdown of Magic/Tragic numbers. Instead, I will just list off some of the more interesting observations that haven’t been captured to this point.

• Danimals has a Magic Number of 40.5 (over Your Mom), for best record in the CPL
• The next highest Magic Number for Danimals in the AL is 14 (over Tom Cat’s), meaning all but the Your Mom franchise will likely be eliminated from this specific competition after week 19
• The highest Magic Number for Your Mom in the NL is 21.5 (over Kelly’s Heroes), which will likely linger into Week 20
• G.I. Zo’s has a tragic number of 4 (over Pro Bowlers), for top pick slot in the next draft and will almost certainly clinch the designation in week 19
• Tom Cat’s, Fajita Eaters and Baby Seals all have Magic Numbers of 13 or less over The Big Hurts
• Motley Shue and Nelly’s Nellamaniacs have magic numbers of 14.5 or less over Banocolates
• The Big Units have a Magic Number of 0.5 over Ball Busters

That’s all for this week.
Any questions or comments, as always, feel free to let me know.