Projected V Expected Wins

I made some mentions in last weeks podcast about Expected and Projected wins and the differential that each team has therein for the 2022 season.

In this post, I’m going to provide a little detail about the difference between the two, as well as the data for each franchise.

Projected wins: Think of these wins as the “Classic” wins. These are the values I’ve been throwing into the void for the last few years. These look at ESPN projections for each franchises opening day roster, add the projected “starters” up, plus a fraction of the bench based on how much playing time the “Starters” for each position are leaving for everyone else to get Roto totals for each category. Standard deviations are calculated from these totals and this combined with the schedule for the year creates a projected win spread for each match-up and each category that are then added up to create a franchises projected Wins, Losses and Ties for that season.

Expected wins: A new feature. These are essentially Roto stats for each franchise converted into Fantasy Wins. I do not know if this example will help or hurt, but think of it like this: In a HR match-up if Team A gets 10, and Team B gets 8, Team A gets 1 Win. In this scenario, each HR was worth 0.1 wins for Team A. However, this is by no means is representative of the typical. In a similar situation, if Team A gets 5 HR and Team B gets 8, Team B gets 1 Win and each HR is worth 0.125 Wins. After looking at many many many different weekly matchups, I generated an average of all of the scenarios to calculate an average numbers of Wins each HR generates. And repeated for each category. Applying this to the Roto stats tells me how many wins those stats should generate on average, regardless of who you are facing on a week by week basis. Or, otherwise known as “Independent of Context”.

A pWin% higher than an xWin% suggests your schedule is giving you more wins than your projected Roto scores. Or in other words, a relatively “soft” schedule.

An xWin% higher than a pWin% suggests the exact opposite.

Without further adieu, each franchises Projected and Expected Wins:

Congrats to Kelly’s Heroes for having the toughest schedule by a significant margin.

Congrats to Baby Seals for having the softest schedule also by a significant margin.

Any questions or comments, let me know.