I’m finally to the point where I can have some fun with my draft analysis.
Quick review:
xDW%: Percentage of a drafts WAR you would expect to draft based on your picks
ADW%: Percentage of a drafts WAR you did draft
A/xDW%: The ratio between ADW% and xDW%
An A/xDW% above 1 means you’ve exceeded your expectations, while below 1 means you have fallen short of expectations.
Ex. An A/xDW% of 1.56 means you have exceeded expectations by 56%.
In this article, all teams will have exceeded their expectations by a significant margin.
Any other questions on A/xDW%, please refer to my previous articles. They are a slog, but all the answers to your questions are likely available.
If the answers aren’t there, feel free to comment or ask me.
I left out any drafts after 2015, as those are still maturing.
Let’s get to it:
10.) Ball Busters – 2010
4 players, 43.9 WAR
xDW%: 4.95%, ADW%: 10.07%, A/xDW%: 2.03
Eric had a tremendous draft in 2010, and as the #10 spot representative shows that you have to exceed your draft expectations by double in order to make this list.
He only selected 4 players in the 2010 draft, and actually missed completely (to date) on his only 1st round pick (Tanner Scheppers), but his remaining 3 picks in rounds 2 and 3 have proven to be excellent WAR finds: Ian Desmond (17.5). Mike Minor (14.9), Jose Iglesias (11.5).
I’m very happy that a draft like this broke the top 10, as it helps to show that you don’t need a wealth of picks to grade high in the A/xDW% system.
9.) BROB’s Barnacles – 2013
14 players, 46.8 WAR
xDW%: 6.61%, ADW%: 13.47%, A/xDW%: 2.04
Brian had a pick in every round (but the 2nd), but really used his 3 picks in the first 4 rounds to drive value: Marcus Stroman (15.7), Michael Wacha (9.9) and Jorge Soler (5.4).
His next 5 picks add up for a whopping 0.0 WAR, with 10th round pick Donovan Solano pitching in a meager 1.5 WAR.
Definitely a front loaded draft looking at the first 10 rounds, but the supplemental’s were also very solid. Of the 5 picks, 3 have generated WAR: Travis Wood (6.9, nice), Greg Garcia (4.5) and Brandon Workman (2.9).
All-in-all, Brian made his early picks count, and managed to snag some supplemental round talent sandwiched around a whole lot of nothing to make it to 9th on these rankings.
8.) Kelly’s Heroes – 2015
22 players, 74.6 WAR
xDW%: 12.32%, ADW%: 25.33%, A/xDW%: 2.06
The infamous 2015 draft rears it’s head, and appears to justify what seemed to be JK’s insatiable thirst for 2015 1st round picks. He ended up ONLY using 6 of the 12 I feel like he had acquired at one point, half of which seemed to be solid investments (1st round picks in order): Yoan Moncada (8.9), Tyler Kolek (0.0), Michael Conforto (14), Bradley Zimmer (1.5), Forest Wall (0), Carlos Carrasco (19).
Two of his three 2nd round picks have contributed, with a 4th, 8th, 9th and 10th round pick chipping in some: Reynaldo Lopez (5.6), Kyle Freeland (6), Jack Flaherty (7.3), Alex Rodriguez (1.6), Zach Davies (7.6), James McCann (2.3).
Tommy Hunter (2.8) in the supplementals added a little cherry to the top.
JK definitely took a volume approach to the 2015 draft, but you can’t say he didn’t get some quality out of the deal. Definitely some swings and misses throughout, but when he hit in 2015, he hit well, with many of these guys seeming like they have plenty of career ahead of them to pad the numbers even more.
7.) Fajita Eaters – 2008,
9 players, 128.2 WAR
xDW%: 10.10%, ADW%: 21.01%, A/xDW%: 2.08
I believe it has been brought up before, but it’s nice to see the Fajita Eater’s 2008 draft further validated as one of the best drafts in CPL history. With the older format of drafting, you simply drafted until your roster was full, and that only took the Fajita Eaters 7 rounds, with a pick in each and duplicates in the 2nd and 6th. As a result, the Fajita Eaters were able to accrue substantial WAR in many rounds, and WAR in every round but the 4th: David Price (41.5, 1st), Jason Heyward (31.1, 2nd), Hank Conger (6.7, 3rd), Madison Bumgarner (36.3, 5th), Michael Saunders (6.8, 6th) and Brett Cecil (7.4, 7th).
I like the no gadget, no fuss approach that Ben was able to use here. He didn’t stock up on picks in any particular round, and was even able to use late round picks effectively. Goes to show that a classic approach to drafting is plenty capable of providing solid long term returns.
6.) Holy Moly – 2012,
5 players, 43.6 WAR
xDW%: 4.95%, ADW%: 10.37%, A/xDW%: 2.09
If you read my most recent post where I provided a team report using Holy Moly as my example, you would know that not only was this Holy Molys’ best draft, it was his only draft that exceeded expectations. This franchises drafts weren’t typically great, but ’12 is clearly a dramatic exception. Very similar to the Ball Busters ’13 draft, with only 5 picks overall, 4 of which were in the first 2 rounds. His first 3 picks generated all of the WAR from this draft, and really the first pick is driving most of the value: Anthony Rendon (32.7), Josh Bell (3.8), Brandon Nimmo (7.1).
All 3 of these guys still have some career ahead of them, but there’s little doubt in my mind that Rendon will continue to keep this draft in the top 10 rankings for the Holy Moly’s franchise.
5.) Motley Shue – 2011
5 players, 37.1 WAR
xDW%: 3.50%, ADW%: 7.63%, A/xDW%: 2.18
As we break the top 5, we start to see a little break away with the 2011 Motley Shue draft. Number’s 10 through 6 are separated by a mere 0.06 A/xDW% points, but Shue separates himself by 0.09 from 6th place alone. Going further, this separation will get a lot more dramatic.
Again we see a draft in the same mold as ’13 Ball Busters and ’12 Holy Moly. 5 picks total with almost all of the value coming from the first pick, Christian Yelich (33.6). Jesse Crain (3.5) is the only other pick that’s provided WAR to date.
There are some observations that are interesting between these 3 similar drafts (being as these drafts embody the idea of Quality over Quantity, I’ll refer to them as the Quality Trio going forward). The fact that they happened in consecutive years makes them a little more comparable than otherwise, and the trend suggests that if you’re like Holy Moly or Motley Shue and really only hit one 1 guy, that guy is going to have to be a next level all star pushing 30+ career WAR. Alternatively, if you don’t hit on that one superstar, you’ll need a large chunk of your draft class to average ~15 career WAR after 7+ years.
4.) Scared Hitless – 2011
11 players, 98.1 WAR
xDW%: 8.23%, ADW%: 20.18%, A/xDW%: 2.45
In year 3 of the Scared Hitless franchise, Rick was rewarded with his 2nd consecutive slam dunk 1st overall pick. But more than just a slam dunk 1st, Rick was able to find 3 more significant contributors, and even some end of draft scrubs to add a couple more WAR: Bryce Harper (35.1), Manny Machado (33.2), Matt Harvey (13.9), Ivan Nova (11.4), Rubby de la Rosa (1.4) and Brandon Workman (2.9).
His remaining 5 picks generated 0.2 WAR.
This draft has developed nicely over the years, and has operated as a strong foundation that the Scared Hitless franchise has used to compete in the AL West.
Of interesting note, in this draft format you needed to drop a player in order to pick someone up in the supplementals. For his final pick, Scared Hitless dropped Matt Joyce who went on to produce another 13.9 WAR that ended up not being awarded to the Scared Hitless franchise.
3.) Pro Bowlers – 2011
11 players, 98.3 WAR
xDW%: 7.31%, ADW%: 20.22%, A/xDW%: 2.77
The third draft to rank in the top 10 from the 2011 draft class, this is where we start to see some of the truly epic drafts.
In previous drafts it was a matter of either drafting a bunch of players who generated double digit WAR, or 1 guy who led the pack with 30+. With Scared Hitless you start to see a bit of a combination of the two, a trend that is further compounded by the ’11 Pro Bowlers draft class which has fantastic value from top to bottom: Yasmani Grandal (32.6, 1st round pick), Andrelton Simmons (24.9, S3), Cesar Hernandez (11.6, 5th), Corey Dickerson (10.5, 7th), Salvador Perez (10, 5th) and Aaron Sanchez (5.6, 3rd).
Truly amazing that 3 of the best drafts came from 2011. Probably means that there were some terrible drafts sprinkled in there, but that should not take away from the impressive accomplishments of Shue, Rick and Pat. Well done.
2.) Scared Hitless – 2015
10 players, 38.4 WAR
xDW%: 4.46%, ADW%: 13.04%, A/xDW%: 2.92
The only repeater in the top 10, Scared Hitless took a markedly different approach to achieving his 2nd top 10 draft nod. With only 10 picks (a relatively small number in the current draft format), Rick was able to find some value in the beginning, but most of it came at the end: Kyle Schwarber (9.1, 1st), Justin Turner (21.9, 10th) and Freddy Galvis (8, S1).
Despite having 10 picks, this result looks more similar to the Quality Trio than any of the other more quantity based approaches. Regardless, as long as Turner and Schwarber keep contributing, expect the Scared Hitless 2015 draft class to continue to rank high on these lists.
1.) Rollin’ Goats – 2010
10 players, 90.1 WAR
xDW%: 6.47%, ADW%: 20.67%, A/xDW%: 3.19
Is there any questions as to how the Rollin’ Goats’ 2010 draft class exceeded their expectations by triple?
Earlier I mentioned that to break the top 5 you needed to have more than just one stud 30+ player. And for the teams ranked 2nd through 4th, this is the case. But, as in all cases, exceptions live to prove the rule as the best draft class of all time according to A/xDW% is led almost entirely by none other than Mike Trout and his ridiculous 73.4 career WAR. Gary Sanchez does contribute 11.4 WAR in his own right and even Alex Wilson threw in 2.4, but Trout is the center piece to this class.
As an observation, 2nd in WAR since the CPL started, not since Trout was drafted, but since the league started, is Joey Votto and his 56.3 WAR. It’s just stupid how much Trout is better than everyone else in the sport.
Now, it is possible that this draft is over taken at the #1 spot. Numbers 2 through 4 all have a lot of players still contributing and depending on how their draft class competition perform for the next decade or so, could someday surpass. But, I don’t see that happening soon. As long as Trout is healthy (god willing) and playing, I don’t think we’ll see a different name in this spot.
You know, the more I look at it, the more this WAR distribution seems to mirror those of the Quality Trio drafts. Dare I say, is it more of a Quality Quadfecta?
As mentioned, 9 teams were represented in this top 10, so I thought I would post the top draft for everyone who wasn’t able to crack it. Amazingly, we have a lot of different owners who are just on the outside looking in, so if you didn’t make it this year, make sure to check back next season (or the one after) as I’m sure plenty will change.
Honorable mentions for teams that didn’t crack the top 10:
Tom Cat’s 2012 – A/xDW%: 1.81, 16th all time
G.I. Zo’s 2009 – A/xDW%: 1.75, 18th all time
Your Mom 2012 – A/xDW%: 1.89, 11th all time
Mauling Tigers 2010 – A/xDW%: 1.56, top 30 all time
The Big Hurts 2012 – A/xDW%: 1.85, 13th all time
Danimals 2015 – A/xDW%: 1.82, 15th all time
Baby Seals 2010 – A/xDW%: 1.79, 17th all time
Any questions or comments, feel free to leave them below.
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