2020 CPL Season Projections – aka the season that never was

I’ll try to make this short.

First, thanks to all of you for your help in generating teams rosters. You guys saved me about a dozen hours of work.

I will do several followup articles on specific aspects of this system.
But for the moment, in this post I will only highlight the primary improvement for this year’s methodology, which was how weekly matchup outcomes are calculated.

Prior System:
In weekly matchups, Wins and Losses were given to the team projected to total more in each category throughout the season. If a category total was close, I gave ties and partial wins/losses based on arbitrary rules.

Current System:
In weekly matchups, Wins and Ties are determined by probability of outcomes (based on standard deviation) in every category and the percentage is awarded as partial wins, ties, and losses as appropriate.

For those interested the link at the bottom is the google spreadsheet that houses the guts of these projections.
Look through it at your own risk, but be warned, through this path lies madness.
The first tab highlights assumptions and caveats. There will also be a WIP reference tab explaining how the sheet works.

Okay, with that out of the way and without further adieu, season projections for H2H record and roto:

 AL East
1) Tom Cat’s (162/153/21 – 0.513 Win rate)
2) Fajita Eaters (143/172/21 – 0.457 Win Rate, 19 games back)
3) Banocolates (103/213/20 – 0.336 Win Rate, 59.5 games back)
4) G.I. Zo’s (82/235/19 – 0.272 Win Rate, 81 games back)

AL West
1) Your Mom (216/100/20 – 0.673 Win Rate)
2) Scared Hitless (194/121/21 – 0.609 Win Rate, 21 games back)
3) Baby Seals (172/143/22 – 0.545 Win Rate, 43 games back)
4) BROB’s Barnacles (162/152/22 – 0.515 Win Rate, 53 games back)

NL East
1) Mauling Tigers (183/131/22 – 0.577 Win Rate)
2) Ball Busters (163/153/20 – 0.515 Win Rate, 21 games back)
3) The Big Hurts (152/164/20 – 0.482 Win Rate, 30.5 games back)
4) Rollin’ Goats (138/176/22 – 0.443 Win Rate, 46 games back)

NL West
1) Motley Shue (204/111/21 – 0.638 Win Rate)
2) Danimals (174/140/22 – 0.551 Win Rate, 30 games back)
3) Kelly’s Heroes (145/169/22 – 0.464 Win Rate, 58.5 games back)
4) Pro Bowlers (127/188/21 – 0.409 Win Rate, 78 games back)

Final Roto Rankings

Roto Results for Hitting categories:

Roto results for pitching categories:

Link to the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11b7iBvjDnw0fRtETkP_3hEUowJ7oReRfkTg1mHRaeyw/edit?usp=sharing

Any questions or comments, feel free to ask. If I don’t respond directly, I may be working on an article tackling that exact subject in the works. So keep an eye out.