I’ve recalculated my season projections to see how different starting points of the season would effect final win/loss records.
In my projections, your schedule plays a significant role. The schedule in my projection engine right now is the one that was on the ESPN site at the beginning of April. Any changes would impact the system, but luckily those changes are relatively easy to make. For now, I’m gong to keep using that original schedule for convenience. When the final announcement is made about the when we start up and the who we will be facing each week, I’ll do a final update as well.
Win % Analysis:
| Season Start Point | Wk1 | Wk6 | Wk10 | Wk14 | Wk18 | |
| AL East | Team | Full | May | June | July | Aug |
| 1 | Tom Cat’s | 0.513 | 0.519 | 0.524 | 0.529 | 0.521 |
| 2 | Fajita Eaters | 0.456 | 0.472 | 0.475 | 0.492 | 0.526 |
| 3 | Bancolates | 0.337 | 0.329 | 0.352 | 0.341 | 0.322 |
| 4 | G.I.Zo’s | 0.273 | 0.273 | 0.278 | 0.256 | 0.234 |
| AL West | ||||||
| 1 | Your Mom | 0.673 | 0.683 | 0.671 | 0.690 | 0.681 |
| 2 | Scared Hitless | 0.609 | 0.596 | 0.602 | 0.593 | 0.610 |
| 3 | Baby Seals | 0.543 | 0.549 | 0.535 | 0.584 | 0.573 |
| 4 | BROB’s Barnacles | 0.516 | 0.505 | 0.514 | 0.515 | 0.533 |
| NL East | ||||||
| 1 | Mauling Tigers | 0.576 | 0.572 | 0.580 | 0.566 | 0.577 |
| 2 | Ball Busters | 0.515 | 0.499 | 0.494 | 0.499 | 0.523 |
| 3 | The Big Hurts | 0.482 | 0.480 | 0.487 | 0.488 | 0.467 |
| 4 | Rollin’ Goats | 0.442 | 0.451 | 0.443 | 0.452 | 0.443 |
| NL West | ||||||
| 1 | Motley Shue | 0.639 | 0.629 | 0.629 | 0.628 | 0.624 |
| 2 | Danimals | 0.551 | 0.547 | 0.555 | 0.555 | 0.519 |
| 3 | Kelly’s Heroes | 0.465 | 0.464 | 0.455 | 0.428 | 0.459 |
| 4 | Pro Bowlers | 0.410 | 0.430 | 0.406 | 0.384 | 0.388 |
Interesting Observations
AL East:
- Tom Cat’s has about the same lead of .037-.057 Win% throughout the season until you get to an August 3rd start date, at which point not only does Fajita Eaters close the gap, but they end up taking first in the division by about 0.5 games.
AL West:
- Baby Seals has an advantage later in the season and at his best, with a July start date, claws within 0.009 Win% (1 game back) of 2nd place, effectively a coin flip.
- BROB’s barnacles best chance is a June start date, where he’s projected to finish 0.021 Win% (4 games) back from 3rd in his division, and the last playoff spot.
NL East:
- Eric maintains a narrow lead (<0.02 Win%) over Vince throughout May, June and July for the final playoff spot.
- Cale has maybe the most consistent range of outcomes in the league (0.010 Win%), with August being his best bet when Vince has a tough schedule and he comes within 0.024 Win% of 3rd in the division.
NL West:
- This is almost eerie how consistent all 4 teams perform regardless of the start date, especially comparing a full season to a May and June start date.
- A start date in August could have Danimals take the final wild card into the playoffs and allows JK within 0.06 win% (4 games) of reaching him, the closest he comes to falling out of 2nd in the division.
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