Magic/Tragic Numbers Update + Week 5 Preview

Magic/Tragic Numbers:

Alright, we are starting to heat up now after an interesting week 4.

With some tense ties and impressive blowouts last week, the playoff races haven’t gotten any more clear.

After this next week we should see some of our first mathematical eliminations from some of the lower performing teams to finish high in the rankings, but as it stands now, it’s possible that no one becomes mathematically eliminated from the playoffs (matchups not being taken into account).

Current Standings

AL East Breakdown

Your Mom: With 32 games to go, Your Mom’s Magic Number sits at a challenging 29.5. Still projected to take the division by 5 games. Your Mom shouldn’t get too comfortable though, as one bad week could still spell disaster for the rest of the 2020 season.

BROB’s Barnacles/Baby Seals: Neck and neck for WC1 and WC2, the loser of which is likely to face Your Mom in the first round of the playoffs and the winner is likely to face Your Mom in the second round of the playoffs. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, as 2 other teams are still in the mix. Currently BROB’s Barnacles and Baby Seals have the lead (tied) over Scared Hitless and Fajita Eaters (also tied) by a measly 5.5 games (Magic Number 27).  If any of these teams have poor weeks in the final matchups, there odds of making the playoffs decreases dramatically.

Scared Hitless: There is still time, but the rest of his schedule leaves little margin for error. Scared Hitless will need to start racking up the wins quickly here to still have a shot at one of the Wild Card slots by the time Week 6 starts.

AL West Breakdown

Tom Cat’s: Not doing much better than Your mom with a magic number of 29 over Fajita Eaters. Still projected to take the division by 5 games.

Fajita Eaters: Has narrowed the projected WC2 gap to 3 games, and with a soft Zo matchup this week, expect that gap to narrow even more.

G.I.Zos/Banocolates: We can expect these teams to clinch finishing in the bottom two of the AL after this week (Tragic numbers of 15 and 14 respectively).

NL West Breakdown

Danimals: With the largest divisional lead in the CPL, Danimals has a comfortable Magic Number of 23 over Motley Shue. Still not likely to clinch in week 5, but I imagine that will be a fairly manageable number going into week 6. Projected to comfortably finish at the top of the division by 10+ games. 

Motley Shue: Fighting to get back in the Wildcard mix, is projected to finish 1 game out of the hunt, but has momentum on his side to propel him up the standings.

Kelly’s Heroes: Right behind Motley Shue, projected to finish 4 games out of the WC hunt.

Pro Bowlers: A 6 game difference still leaves Pro Bowlers with a 26.5 Tragic Number behind Rollin’ Goats and Kelly’s Hero’s for cellar of the NL. Probably not going to a clinch in this upcoming week.

NL East Breakdown

The Big Hurts/Mauling Tigers: Tied for the NL East lead, giving them both an amusing Magic Number of 32.5. Loser of this battle will likely settle into the 1st wild card slot. Mauling Tigers projected to take his division by a narrow 2.5 game margin. The Big Hurts projected to take WC1 by 4.5 games over Ball Busters. 

Ball Busters: The most interesting situation in the NL is the 2nd wildcard slot, currently held by Ball Busters, but followed closely by Motley Shue (1.5 games, 31 Magic Number), and only slightly more distantly by Kelly’s Heroes and Rollin Goats (both tied giving Ball Busters a Magic Number of 28 over those two teams).

Rollin Goats: Currently projected to miss the playoffs by 5 games.

Week 5 matchups to keep an eye on: 

AL: With blowouts projected in the East (10+ Wins for Tom Cat’s and Fajita Eaters), and nail biters in the West (everyone projected between 7 and 9 wins) for week 5, week 6 is shaping up to be the wild ride everyone thought it would be in the AL.

NL: Meanwhile things aren’t expected to be any more calm in the NL, as all of the matchups are projected to be between 7 and 9 wins. The one exception is the Danimals V Pro Bowlers matchup that is expected to be a blowout, further padding the Danimals lead.

Motley Shue V Kelly’s Heroes – If Shue can keep his momentum going a big win here could propel him comfortably into the wild card mix. Meanwhile, Kelly’s Heroes needs to at least break even to still have a shot at the second wild card spot.

Ball Busters V Mauling Tigers – Tiger will need to have a strong week against his top divisional rival to prevent The Big Hurts from building a lead due to the soft matchup they have with Rollin’ Goats. Meanwhile, Ball Busters wants to give himself some breathing room in the Wild Card race, but with a strong enough finish could even put his hat in the ring for the divisional race.

BROB’s Barnacles V Your Mom – BROB would probably love to gain a few games on the divisional leader, but ultimately he just needs to keep it close to prevent  Fajita Eaters and Scared Hitless from gaining too much ground. Meanwhile, Your Mom wants to buffer that pad and help to ensure his upteenth consecutive playoff appearance.

Baby Seals V Scared Hitless – Scared Hitless needs to have a strong showing to keep himself in the running for a wild card spot. Baby Seals, similar to BROBs Barnacles, really just wants to at least keep it close, as a blow out could push him to the outside looking in.