Magic/Tragic Numbers + Week 6 preview

And then there were none.

Boy, Week 5 was messy. AL West was razor tight, AL East was only 1/2 blowout and the entire NL was full of lopsided games, 1/2 in the direction you would expect, and 1/2 in major upsets.

So, where does that leave us:

Oh boy, let’s go division by division again because I like that format:

AL East

Tom Cat’s/Fajita Eaters: After a very upsetting outing by Griffin Canning, Tom Cat’s lost all of his buffer for the division lead. Both teams now head into the final week facing each other and in a deadlock tie. Fajita Eaters currently holds the tie breaker of most wins. Magic Number is a meaningless 16.5 for both teams. Winner of week 6 takes the division. Loser keeps an eye on the AL East and hopes to back their way into the playoffs anyways. A tie is a tribute to the gods of chaos and proof that the only ruling power in our universe is unadulterated randomness.

Banocolates/G.I. Zo’s: The only full on clinches going into week 6, both teams have not only clinched bottom two of the AL, but have indeed clinched not making the playoffs. Congrats. Also facing each other, there would be some tension here but Banocolates owns both picks and is simply hoping to fend off the likes of Pro Bowlers for pick’s #1 and #2. As detailed out below, only the most extreme of scenarios causes Banocolates to lose out on #1 AND #2, but there is a decent chance that #2 could be at risk depending on how Pro Bowlers fare this week.

AL West

Your Mom: A 4.5 game lead over 2nd and 3rd place gives Your Mom a Magic # target of 12 on the week for division title. It is not impossible that Your Mom misses out on the playoffs, but the scenario would have to be winning 2.5 games or less while the BROB V Baby Seals matchup AND the Tom Cat’s V Fajita Eaters matchup both end in dead heats, so let’s call it mathematically likely that Your Mom snakes his way into the playoffs.

BROB’s Barnacles/Baby Seals: Yet, another dead tie going into week 6 where both teams are facing one another (good job on the schedule Brian). Winner of this matchup will take the first Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the loser will have to hope that they are within 1 category of the loser in the Tom Cats V Fajita Eater matchup, or risk losing out on the playoffs all together.

Scared Hitless: Almost assuredly out of the hunt. Not mathematically eliminated, but being 5 games back and having to jump over multiple teams, this seems like the longest shot in the AL (outside of the eliminated teams of course). In the scenario mentioned above, where Your Mom manages only 2.5 wins in week 6, Scared Hitless would find themselves with 13.5 wins, which in a world of ties in the other neck and neck games would actually propel him to the division lead. So, like I said, not mathematically eliminated, but let’s call this one mathematically unlikely.

NL East

Ball Busters: With a massive win over Mauling Tigers, Ball Busters has some serious momentum at the right time. But with a 2 game lead (Magic Number 13.5), it’s still super tight. A matchup against Rollin’ Goats would normally spell relief, but they themselves are coming off of a big upset win over The Big Hurts and have some momentum. With only 5 games separating these two teams, it’s very possible that a big upset here allows Rollin’ Goats to surpass Ball Busters in a late season come back.

The Big Hurts/Mauling Tigers: Being on the receiving end of some big upsets, The Big Hurts and Mauling Tigers find themselves separated by a scant 0.5 games, and facing each other for what is likely to decide who is going to be Wild Card #1 and Wild Card #2. They’re more likely to keep an eye on other matchups, as the results of the Rollin’ Goats, Kelly’s Heroes and Motley Shue matchups are going to be heavily influential in determining if they have a shot of falling out of the playoff race at the last second. If any of those 3 teams win big, then the loser from this matchup will be nervous indeed.

Rollin’ Goats: Feels like I’ve already written this piece by now. The big win last week put Rollin’ Goats’ destiny firmly in their own hands. Now they have to try their damnedest to not fuck it up. A substantial win over Ball Busters could give Rollin’ Goats the division. A minor win could still put them in the race for that 2nd wild card slot. 7 wins or fewer likely spells out the end of the 2020 season. 

NL West

Danimals: A 12 game lead over Kelly’s Heroes gives Danimals that cherished 4.5 Magic Number. 5 measly categories will ensure that Danimals clinches the division lead, and a playoff birth. Maybe a touch more interesting to Danimals is their 1 game separation from Your Mom for CPL Best Record in 2020. Both franchises have “relatively” soft matchups against teams who were expected to compete but have slumped greatly this season. If Danimals can manage 1.5 more wins than Your Mom this week, they’ll take the crown regardless of matchup.

Kelly’s Heroes/Motley Shue: Two teams on the bubble of the playoffs and NOT playing each other in week 6? So close, Brian. So close. With 1 game separating these two teams, they have effectively the same goals in mind: get as many wins as possible in week 6. Kelly’s Heroes find themselves 3.5 games out of the 2nd wild card spot, while Motley Shue is 4.5 games behind. Motley Shue has a difficult matchup against Danimals, while Kelly’s Heroes finds a soft finish to the season against Pro Bowlers. If the The Big Hurts V Mauling Tigers matchup ends in a tie, these two teams will need to nab 12 and 13 wins respectively to have a shot at the playoffs. Anything other than a tie though improves the odds greatly. At the same time, they’ll be watching the Rollin’ Goats V Ball Busters matchup hoping for any outcome other than a tie (preferably a Ball Buster blowout). So, in other words, everyone is watching everyone in the NL this week.

Pro Bowlers: Well, almost everyone. Pro Bowlers has clinched not finishing in 1st place of the NL this week. Congrats. Most of the other “battles” are comparatively clinched as well. The closest NL franchise to Pro Bowlers is Motley Shue, where Pro Bowlers finds themselves with a very manageable Tragic Number of 8. More significant, with both the #16 and #15 franchises facing each other this week, Pro Bowlers has the chance to “make-up” significant ground. Presuming that matchup is a tie, if Pro Bowlers finds themselves with only a single category win, he could find himself the proud owner of #1 overall. Anything other than a tie eliminates that possibility, but dramatically increases the possibility of claiming #2. Get them L’s Pro Bowlers!

Matchups to watch:

All of them. They are all serving a purpose here as detailed above. Drama around every corner, even for the shitty teams. Any blowouts in any direction for any matchup are likely to have significant impacts on the playoff contenders and the top 3 picks of next season. Thank goodness because there wasn’t nearly enough tension in my life.

Best of luck everyone!