Projections

Playoff Odds 2020 Season

May 26, 2020
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Some playoff odds for the 2020 season based on the latest and greatest from my computer projections. Should be pretty self-explanatory. Enjoy!

Season win%Division champMake playoffsConference champCPL champ
Your Mom0.59249.4%97.6%28.3%14.1%
Scared Hitless0.58944.5%97.1%27.9%13.8%
BROB’s Barnacles0.5274.3%65.7%15.5%7.0%
Baby Seals0.5061.8%32.2%7.1%3.1%
 
Tom Cat’s0.50684.4%88.2%18.0%7.5%
Fajita Eaters0.45212.7%16.3%2.7%1.0%
Banocolates0.4142.9%3.6%0.5%0.2%
G.I. Zo’s0.3330.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%
 
Motley Shue0.59576.8%99.2%28.0%15.8%
Danimals0.56021.9%89.8%22.9%12.2%
Pro Bowlers0.4760.8%13.0%2.5%1.1%
Kelly’s Heroes0.4670.5%9.2%1.7%0.8%
 
Ball Busters0.52749.2%83.0%20.7%10.9%
Mauling Tigers0.52139.9%76.9%18.8%9.8%
The Big Hurts0.4706.1%15.2%3.1%1.5%
Rollin’ Goats0.4644.8%12.1%2.4%1.2%

And as a bonus, here is the future CPL world series odds I referenced during our last podcast. These are VERY experimental (meaning they hold about 0 value, but it’s still fun). Start with the 2020 projections, apply an aging curve to each player based on peripherals and age, then re-run season statistics. Total each teams WAR and re-run post season probabilities. WS20% is chance to win the CPL world series in 2020. WS21% is chance to win in 2021, etc.

WS20%WS21%WS22%WS23%WS24%
Your Mom14%12%10%10%9%
Scared Hitless14%10%8%7%5%
BROB’s Barnacles7%6%6%6%6%
Baby Seals3%6%7%8%10%
 
Tom Cat’s8%1%2%1%0%
Fajita Eaters1%0%3%4%4%
Banocolates0%0%1%1%3%
G.I. Zo’s0%0%0%0%0%
 
Motley Shue16%17%14%12%11%
Danimals12%9%8%7%5%
Pro Bowlers1%8%9%10%13%
Kelly’s Heroes1%4%6%6%7%
 
Ball Busters11%9%8%7%7%
Mauling Tigers10%8%8%8%7%
The Big Hurts1%5%7%8%9%
Rollin’ Goats1%4%5%6%5%

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